Slowing growth hits home: Litchfield Park joins state negative population chart

While neighboring West Valley cities continue to see expansion, new Census Bureau figures show Litchfield Park is taking a decidedly different path.

According to the latest data, the city’s population dipped slightly to 6,727 residents in 2025, a 1.4% annual decline that places it near the top of the state's negative growth chart, even as neighboring Goodyear (6.5%) and Buckeye (5.5%)post some of the higher growth rates in Arizona.

This local stabilization mirrors a broader, statewide trend.

Across Arizona, the largest cities are seeing their rapid growth largely stall or decline. Phoenix remains the state champion with an estimated 1.66 million residents, but it added just 3,157 new residents during a 12-month period, an anemic 0.2% growth rate. Tucson fared worse, losing 2,262 residents in a single year, while similar slow-growth patterns showed up in Mesa, Gilbert, and Chandler.

At the other extreme, landlocked Paradise Valley dropped by 2%, the largest percentage decrease in the state, putting Litchfield Park squarely on the same negative growth list alongside communities like Patagonia, Guadalupe, Winkelman, and Winslow.

However, local officials view these shifts as a natural stabilizing pattern for a city that prioritizes its unique character over rapid expansion.

"We view population estimates remaining relatively flat through 2025 as a reflection of movement at less than 2% of the overall population, rather than a challenge to metrics," said Litchfield Park City Manager Matthew Williams. "While there is significant development in the city, we believe that Litchfield Park’s small-town feel is a unique characteristic, and we strive to balance growth while maintaining the close-knit community ties that our residents value."

The census numbers are about more than local bragging rights. While explosive growth shifts to outer fringes like Queen Creek (up 8.2%) or nearby Surprise (up 4.6%), landlocked or slow-growing communities face real fiscal implications.

Growth typically means new housing, which drives construction sales taxes and property taxes from new homeowners. 

Arizona cities rely heavily on state shared revenues, which are largely portioned out based on a city's head count:

• Urban Revenue Sharing: Cities gave up the right to levy local income taxes in 1972 in exchange for an 18% share of what the state collects, a fixed pot that now tops $1.26 billion annually. Rapidly growing communities get a larger slice of the pie, while shrinking or stagnant areas end up with less.
• State Sales Taxes: Another $900 million pool is shared among municipalities based on population.
• Vehicle License Tax & Highway Funds: About $327 million in vehicle taxes and $499 million from the Highway User Revenue Fund, or gasoline taxes, use formulas heavily tied to population data.

Despite these state formulas, Williams said Litchfield Park's commercial core remains highly resilient because its economic health is not solely dependent on residents living inside city lines.

"The 2025 population metrics have little impact on the city from an economic standpoint," Williams said, "as a large population of the city’s business customers come from outside the city limits."

With less space to build outward than outer-fringe neighbors, slower-growing or landlocked communities across the state have to get creative to attract new residents and protect their revenue shares without eroding their local identity.

One option available to Arizona communities is using new "middle housing" laws. This allows or requires cities to take areas, particularly near central business districts or historic cores zoned for single-family homes, and permit multifamily homes. Because these properties are often less expensive, they can attract buyers who want to avoid massive suburban commutes.

Other landlocked cities are looking upward or inward. Tempe, for example, has successfully combated slow growth by aggressively converting underutilized commercial zones into vibrant, mid-rise mixed-use residential developments.

As the West Valley continues to reshape itself, local officials in mature, residential communities like Litchfield Park will continue navigating the fine line between economic adaptation and preserving the close-knit charm their residents expect.