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Prop. 438 would continue Agua Fria's 15% budget override

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Agua Fria Union High School District voters will decide Nov. 3 whether to continue a property tax override that helps pay for employee salaries, school safety, career and technical education, Advanced Placement courses, fine arts and other district programs.

The measure would continue Agua Fria's existing 15% maintenance and operations override, which is expected to generate about $12.2 million annually. It would not increase the override percentage.

Official election materials estimate a tax rate of $0.4173 per $100 of net assessed valuation and say the rate is expected to remain approximately equal to the current secondary tax rate.

The override has been part of Agua Fria's funding for more than 20 years.

A no vote would not eliminate the money immediately

If voters reject Prop. 438, Agua Fria would not lose the full $12.2 million next year.

The existing override would remain at 15% through fiscal year 2027-28. It would then fall to 10% in fiscal year 2028-29 and 5% in 2029-30 before expiring in 2030-31 unless voters approve another continuation.

District officials explained that timeline to the governing board in May when asking members to call the November election.

At the time, the existing override was generating about $11.5 million for the district's maintenance and operations budget. Mike Shepard, the district's executive director of finance, told the board the override had been in place for 22 years and the district had come to rely substantially on the funding.

If voters do not renew it in either 2026 or 2027, Shepard said the district would eventually have to reduce its budget by "around $4 million," followed by another reduction the next year.

The district has not publicly identified which positions or programs would be reduced first if that happens.

From teacher pay to student programs

During the May meeting, board members identified career and technical education programs, Advanced Placement courses, fine arts, JROTC, summer school, athletics, Coldwater Academy and New Directions among programs supported by the override. The funding also supports teacher compensation and efforts to maintain smaller class sizes.

A board member asked whether those programs would be phased out if voters did not renew the override in either 2026 or 2027.

Shepard stopped short of saying specific programs would be eliminated.

"We would be losing those funds and we would have to make some very difficult decisions as a district," Shepard said.

He described the override as funding "everything that makes high school awesome and special."

Official voter information identifies safety and security personnel, workforce development and internships, career and technical education, college and career pathways, competitive salaries, additional teachers and staff, technology and other operating expenses among uses of the funding.

Programs listed in election materials range from agriculture, engineering and medical programs to International Baccalaureate, JROTC, arts, music, choir, band, athletics and extracurricular activities.

The district has been asked to provide more detail about how the $12.2 million is divided among those areas and which positions or programs would be affected first if the override begins phasing out.

What homeowners would pay

The estimated tax rate for Prop. 438 is $0.4173 per $100 of net assessed valuation, according to official election materials.

For an owner-occupied home with a limited property value of $129,195, the estimated annual cost is about $54.

At the district average of $258,390, the estimated cost is about $108 a year, or $9 a month.

For a home with a limited property value of $516,780, the estimated annual cost is about $216.

Limited property value is the figure used in calculating Arizona property taxes and is not necessarily the same as what a home could sell for.

Although the district describes Prop. 438 as maintaining the current tax rate, official election materials say the estimated secondary tax rate is expected to remain approximately equal to the current rate. A homeowner's actual tax bill can still change as property valuations and other tax rates change.

What happens if Prop. 438 passes

Approval would reset the clock on the override, keeping it at 15% through fiscal year 2031-32.

Without another voter-approved continuation after that, it would decline to 10% in fiscal year 2032-33 and 5% in 2033-34 before expiring.

Agua Fria voters have faced this decision before.

Voters rejected an override continuation in 2021, with about 54% voting against it. Because Arizona law phases out an existing override rather than ending it immediately, the district returned to voters the following year.

In 2022, voters approved the continuation with about 52% of the vote.

District officials told the governing board in May that the current override could similarly be renewed in either November 2026 or November 2027 before the phaseout would affect a subsequent district budget.

No opposition argument submitted

No argument opposing Prop. 438 was submitted for publication in the official voter information pamphlet.

That does not mean no voters oppose the measure. It means no opposing argument was submitted to the Maricopa County School Superintendent by the deadline for inclusion in the pamphlet.

The Agua Fria governing board submitted an argument supporting the continuation, along with supporting arguments from West Valley community and business leaders.

During its May 6 meeting, the governing board voted to call the special budget override election.

Voters will make the final decision Nov. 3.

Editor’s note:   A grant from the Arizona Local News Foundation made this story possible. The foundation awarded 15 newsrooms to pay for solutions-focused education reporters for two years. Please submit comments at yourvalley.net/letters or email them to AzOpinions@iniusa.org. We are committed to publishing a wide variety of reader opinions, as long as they meet our Civility Guidelines.

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