By Howard Fischer
Mail | X: @azcapmedia

PHOENIX — Ignoring a veto threat, Arizona House Speaker Steve Montenegro introduced his own zero-growth spending plan on Monday for the new fiscal year that begins July 1.

The Goodyear Republican said it is clear the $17.6 billion plan negotiated among Gov. Katie Hobbs, Senate Republicans and Democrats from both chambers is irresponsible. He also said there are not sufficient votes from House GOP members despite the fact last week they had approved their own $17.2 billion budget.

What is now scheduled for a House vote Wednesday is a $17 billion spending plan. Rep. David Livingston, who chairs the House Appropriations Committee said that’s basically what the state is spending this fiscal year plus a few adjustments.

Montenegro has indicated he’s willing to add some funds if Hobbs agrees to something the House GOP considers more reasonable. But with time running out — a new budget must be adopted before July 1 to keep state government open — he wants something in place while those negotiations take place.

How far Senate Republicans are willing to go to deal with House GOP objections remains unclear. On one hand, Senate President Warren Petersen, voted for that $17.6 billion plan. And he has defended it as perhaps the best deal to be had given the Democratic governor has the last word with a veto stamp.

Petersen, however, indicated he’s willing to see what the House passes, though he is making no commitments.

But none of that will matter if the governor follows through with her promise to veto it. And if no one blinks by July 1, that sets the stage for an unprecedented fiscal crisis in Arizona as the state constitution has no provisions to keep government operating without an adopted budget.

All that, however, presumes there are sufficient Republican votes for what Montenegro has dubbed his “continuation budget.”

There are 33 GOP lawmakers in the 60-member chamber. But one — Rep. Matt Gress of Phoenix — is in Italy for his honeymoon. And House Minority Leader Oscar De Los Santos said not a single one of the 27 Democrats will vote in favor of the “non-starter” bill.

“That plan will short-change our public schools, our colleges, health care, lifeline services for working families and the most vulnerable in our state,” he said.

He also noted the Senate-approved plan — the one supported by a majority of Democrats in both the House and Senate — has dollars for other priorities such as a pay raise for Department of Public Safety officers and state firefighters.

If Democrats balk, that means Montenegro can afford to lose just one vote among his caucus.

Whether he has that remains to be seen. Just a week ago Livingston said he thought there were enough House lawmakers from both parties to approve the Senate plan.

On Monday, the Peoria Republican was telling a different story. So what changed?

“We got the real numbers,” he said, ones that showed the spending in the Senate plan was unsustainable.

Even assuming there are sufficient votes for this new GOP plan, that still leaves the question of why go through the exercise given the governor’s promise to veto it. Montenegro said he isn’t paying attention to that.

“First and foremost, the people of Arizona deserve to make sure we’re going through every budget, every dollar that’s being spent for the public,” he said.

What that means, Montenegro said, is a budget that prioritizes the use of available dollars for public safety, law enforcement and safe communities.

“Unfortunately, from the start, the executive budget laid out a framework that did not line up with having those conversations,” he said. “And we were pretty much given or told, take-it-or-leave it.”

That’s not exactly how Hobbs sees it, saying that Montenegro and House GOP leadership were invited to participate in the negotiations. The speaker disagreed.

“The House has always been open to conversations,” he said, though Montenegro acknowledged once the Senate began talking with the Democratic governor it was clear they were crafting a plan that would not be of interest to House Republicans.

“They decided to focus on their own negotiations behind closed doors,” he said. “We were not a part of those.”

Still, Montenegro said House Republicans remain ready to talk. And the spending plan that was introduced Monday is a way to do that while ensuring state services do not come to a halt on July 1 once there is no authority to spend money.

How much latitude the GOP caucus will give the speaker to agree to a deal — and avoid financial crisis — is up in the air.

Rep. Justin Olson is taking a hard-line stance. The Mesa Republican said the Senate-approved budget for next fiscal year is an 8.3% increase over current spending. By contrast, he said, inflation and population growth is up just 4.1%.

Olson said the last time lawmakers had such a giant mismatch was during the administration of Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano.

“State expenditures increased by more than double the rate of growth in population and inflation,” he said. “We ended up with a $3.6 billion budget deficit, a budget crisis, that we were ill-prepared to be able to resolve.”

Lawmakers dealt with the deficit with about $1 billion in cuts, a similar amount of borrowing and a temporary sales tax hike that made up the difference.