Arizona could gain more than $11 billion in long-term economic benefits if more students pursue and complete education after high school, according to a new report examining the state's workforce needs and postsecondary education system.
The October report, "Billions in the Balance," released by Helios Education Foundation, estimates that achieving a 60% postsecondary attainment rate among Arizona's 2026 high school graduates would generate $11.1 billion in lifetime economic benefits, including $3.75 billion in fiscal gains.
The estimates represent projected lifetime benefits for a single graduating class, not annual revenue or guaranteed economic growth.
Arizona's Achieve60AZ initiative calls for 60% of adults ages 25 to 64 to hold a postsecondary degree, certificate or license by 2030. The state's attainment rate was 50% in 2024.
Paul Perrault, senior vice president of community impact and learning at Helios Education Foundation, said the findings reinforce the economic value of education beyond high school.
"The data really continues to show that earning a degree or credential is still probably the most reliable way for greater economic opportunity for students in the state of Arizona," Perrault said.
The report estimates nearly one-third of Arizona's 2026 high school graduates will not enroll in postsecondary education, while another 25% will enroll but leave without completing a credential.
Compared with high school graduates, those earning associate degrees are projected to gain approximately $354,000 in additional lifetime earnings, while bachelor's degree recipients could gain $1.1 million. Individual outcomes depend on education costs, career choices and employment opportunities.
Keeping Arizona graduates in Arizona
Increasing educational attainment is only part of the challenge. Arizona also struggles to retain college graduates.
According to research from Strada Education Foundation cited in the Helios report, just 41% of graduates from Arizona postsecondary institutions remain in the state, placing Arizona among the five lowest states nationally for graduate retention.
By comparison, Texas retains 84% of its graduates and California retains 83%.
Perrault said expanding industries such as semiconductor manufacturing could help to reverse that trend by providing more career opportunities.
"We want Arizona students to get those good jobs. We want them to have good opportunities," Perrault said.
Growing demand for skilled workers
The report identifies health care and semiconductor manufacturing as two industries facing significant workforce challenges.
Arizona institutions currently award approximately 37,400 health care credentials annually. Meeting projected demand would require another 8,700 credentials each year, a 23% increase.
Perrault said expanding health care education presents challenges because some programs have waiting lists and limited capacity.
Semiconductor manufacturing faces a different problem: connecting students with career opportunities in a rapidly expanding industry.
The report estimates Arizona needs approximately 1,240 additional semiconductor-related credentials annually, a 28% increase in the current sector-specific pipeline.
Perrault said health care careers generally have established educational pathways, while semiconductor careers remain less familiar to students and school counselors.
"How do we make those pathways visible for students?" he asked.
New career paths, some in just eight weeks
Pearl Chang Esau, founder of Shan Strategies, a consulting firm working with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. on workforce development, said Arizona's expanding semiconductor industry offers opportunities extending well beyond traditional manufacturing jobs.
She said workforce initiatives supported by federal CHIPS Act funding include semiconductor technician apprenticeships and partnerships with Arizona State University, Northern Arizona University, Maricopa Community Colleges and Grand Canyon University.
Those programs help develop pathways into careers involving equipment maintenance, facility operations, engineering, data analysis and semiconductor processing.
Esau said the opportunities extend to adults seeking more stable employment or a career change, including those without four-year degrees.
"It's not too late for anybody to get ready for it. Our training programs are as short as eight weeks," Esau said.
Entry-level semiconductor technicians can earn starting salaries ranging from approximately $40,000 to $70,000 annually, depending on the position, according to Esau. Engineering positions generally start $20,000 to $30,000 higher, she estimated.
The opportunities extend beyond engineering and manufacturing. Esau said every semiconductor fabrication facility requires business operations and supporting positions, creating potential career pathways for workers with a variety of interests.
Students pursuing career and technical education in robotics, welding, electrical systems and related trades may already be developing skills applicable to the industry.
Esau said TechSmart Learning Fund and approximately nine semiconductor companies worked with the Arizona Department of Education to develop semiconductor CTE standards in 2026. She estimated about five Arizona schools are beginning to adopt them.
The report recommends expanding financial aid, improving career advising, strengthening transfer agreements and addressing barriers such as transportation, housing and family responsibilities.
Perrault said improving access to education is not enough if students cannot complete their programs or understand how their credentials connect to employment opportunities.
"Students shouldn't have to figure that out and do all that work themselves," he said. "We can do a better job at advising both at the high school and the college level."
Those looking to find a new pathway into the semiconductor industry can visit TechSmart Learning Fund for more information.
Editor’s note: A grant from the Arizona Local News Foundation made this story possible. The foundation awarded 15 newsrooms to pay for solutions-focused education reporters for two years. Please submit comments at yourvalley.net/letters or email them to AzOpinions@iniusa.org. We are committed to publishing a wide variety of reader opinions, as long as they meet our Civility Guidelines.
Meet Stacy Stacy Mantle is joining the team at Independent Newsmedia, Inc. as an Education Solutions journalist, thanks to a grant from the Arizona Community Collaborative. She has a long history in education that ranges from teaching junior high and middle school to developing curriculum and standards-based assessments.
Community: A longtime advocate for animal welfare, Stacy is deeply involved in rescue efforts and volunteers with several nonprofit organizations.
Random Fact: Once upon a time, she shared her home with a pet coyote and two wolf hybrids. The experiences were wild enough to become the subject of her first book!
Education: She holds a BA in English with a minor in Political Science, a Post-baccalaureate in Secondary Education, and an MBA with a emphasis on Marketing.
Hobbies: In her spare time, Stacy writes fast-paced urban fantasy novels, crafts small-batch artisan soap, and is always up for hiking or off-roading through the Arizona wilderness with her husband of 23 years.
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