Chandler school district enrollment still plummeting

By Jason W. Brooks
Mail | X: @JasonWBrooks2

Overall enrollment statistics have been parts of wedge issues in Chandler Unified School District Governing Board discussions and campaigns for years.

The trouble is, over the past five years or so, CUSD’s enrollment has been declining. Debates have raged over what to do or what not to do about it.

This graphic shows how the Chandler Unified School District is losing alomost $4 million this year in state regular maintenance and operations funding due to its overall enrollment decline. Rather than being 400 students down from last year, the number is cloaser to 1,000 students.

Courtesy of Chandler USD

A report delivered to the CUSD governing board as part of mid-fiscal year budget adjustment revealed more detail about how many students the district has lost.

Since peaking at almost 45,000 students during the 2019-20 school year, CUSD enrollment has steadily declined, sparked by several factors.

Average Daily Membership, or ADM, is the complex number state education departments use to determine funding for each district. While actual campus attendance might be greater, ADM is still both a funding determinant and a fairly reliable statistic in showing whether a district is growing or shrinking.

A report presented as part of CUSD’s state-mandated first midyear 2024-25 budget revision showed district enrollment is down almost 1,000 students from the final budget revision of the 2023-24 school year.

Lana Berry, the district’s chief financial officer, said while a handful of special-ed weighted categories have gone up or remained stable, the decline of overall and special-ed ADM is going to cost the district almost $6 million in state funding this year.

“The major change for us is our ADM,” Berry told the board during its Dec. 11 meeting. “Our demographer’s estimate was that we’d lose about 400 students this year. Our ADM numbers show we’ve lost a total of 990 students from our final 2023-24 revision to this mid-year revision.”

Demographer Rick Brammer, who made a presentation at a CUSD board work session, predicts the district’s 40-plus campuses will be down to an overall enrollment of about 35,000 students by 2035. He and Berry have both mentioned repeatedly that declining Arizona and U.S. birth rates, the high cost of real estate in Chandler, the emergence of private and charter schools and the state’s voucher program are all factors in CUSD enrollment decline.

Brammer also said unlike many other districts, especially those in areas where residents don’t have many education options, students who stopped attending CUSD schools during COVID-19 closures “simply didn’t come back” to a district school.

The board approved the mid-year adjustment, though it’s unclear how or if the district will address declining enrollment in any dramatic way. Closing or even “repurposing” elementary schools, as the district’s biggest enrollment losses are among K-3 students, have been met with resistance and largely went nowhere as a discussion topic.

Board member Kurt Rohrs said declining enrollment was a factor in why he voted against sending a $487 million bond to voters on Nov. 5. That bond would have brought in money to pay for dozens of building repairs and upgrades and technology purchases, but voters soundly rejected the bond.

At the Dec. 11 meeting, the board approved a $700,000 contract with FieldTurf USA to resurface the Basha High School running track at Jim Wall Stadium. Those purchases will become more isolated as the district has nearly exhausted all of its $290 million bond approved by voters in 2019.

We invite our readers to submit their civil comments on this topic. Email AZOpinions@iniusa.org.  Email Jason W. Brooks at jbrooks@iniusa.org.

INDEPENDENT NEWSMEDIA

Jason W. Brooks
News Editor | Chandler Independent

Jason W. Brooks joined Independent Newsmedia, Inc., USA, in July 2021 as an associate editor. After a year covering Buckeye, he has covered Chandler since the fall of 2022, in addition to assisting the Daily Independent throughout his time at INI.

Education: University of New Mexico, bachelor of arts in journalism and mass communication, print emphasis, English minor.

Random Fact: He and his siblings witnessed a Space Shuttle launch and landing in the same year in person, on opposite coasts.

Hobbies: Karaoke, bicycling and American Sign Language.

Community: He supports animal shelters.