Projections by the Maricopa Association of Governments estimate that Tempe’s population will grow from 167,400, as recorded on July 1, 2022, to 269,700 by the same date in 2060 — an increase of 38%.
Cities across the Valley are expecting growth in their populations over the next 30 years, and Tempe city staff are busy preparing for the influx of new people, businesses and overall traffic while keeping the sustainability of the city and its resources in mind.
Neighboring cities show projected increases as well, with Phoenix expecting a 28% increase, finally reaching over 2 million in population size, and nearby Mesa increasing in population by 18%.
MAG also released employment projections for this time period, with Tempe recording a 31% increase from a total of 192,400 workers in 2022 to an estimated total of 273,000 employees in 2060.
Residents can expect a boom in business, traffic and city investments to prepare for a larger population, but they may be wondering whether essentials like water can sustain such growth in the future, especially with statewide drought concerns.
Coincidentally, Tempe is about to finalize its General Plan 2050 before it’s put on the ballot for voters to approve in March 2024, so future-oriented discussions are at the top of mind for city staff.
Officials in the utilities, transportation and economic development offices shared how the city has been preparing and working together in order to provide the best quality of life for its existing and future residents.
Getting around
Tempe has a number of transportation projects in progress that will increase efficiency across the city for its and the greater Valley’s populations, from the I-10 Broadway Curve improvements to its continued testing of an all-pedestrian crosswalk on Mill Avenue.
Transportation investments will be essential to accommodate more Tempe and also other Valley residents who frequent Tempe roads to their home cities.
But City Traffic Engineer Cathy Hollow says it’s difficult to give an exact answer about how transportation will evolve over the next 30 years, especially as the city just begins to update its transportation plan to guide the city’s transportation projects.
“People make all the plans but we want to see how it really works for Tempe and how it impacts us,” Hollow said.
For example, Tempe implemented its adaptive signal system on the west side of the city, which modifies signal times based on live traffic to increase efficiency with travel times in response to the Broadway Curve construction. This system is still being monitored for its efficacy but would make streets more efficient if the tests prove to be successful.
Tempe continues to monitor its traffic patterns, identifying areas where efficient procedures can be added.
Independent Newsmedia/Caroline Yu
(Independent Newsmedia/Caroline Yu)
However, with future transportation issues, Hollow said that the scene is evolving, as the city now has to consider not just typical vehicular traffic, but new technologies like drones and driverless vehicles that decrease traffic outside of city efforts.
As for other city traffic, residents have expressed a desire for pedestrian support and increased public transit options in the city’s ongoing general plan discussions. Tempe’s growing population corresponds with its outlined increases in density, which would support the use of public transit and pedestrian modes of transportation.
According to Hollow, the city is always looking for ways to improve those facilities, bringing in new bike lanes, improved sidewalks and other means to shorten trips for pedestrians. But what’s to come exactly is still up in the air until the new transportation plan is finished and the city knows the actual growth in population.
“All that kind of infrastructure really helps Tempe, but we won’t really see the results until it’s done, so it’s hard to actually quantify it right now,” Hollow said. ”
Economic resilience
Anticipating an increase in its workforce and general population, Tempe doesn’t expect to have issues with residents finding jobs. Still, its continued struggle with housing could prevent people from living and working in the city.
As far as the new general plan, Tempe’s distinct employment corridors — where businesses are centralized including downtown, the lake district and Arizona State University’s Research Park — attract a number of both employers and employees.
However, with its worker population having outgrown its resident population, many of Tempe’s workers are forced to commute from other nearby municipalities, Tempe Deputy Director of Economic Development Maria Laughner explained.
“Tempe already has very established employment corridors, you know, we are a mature city from that perspective and we are also a net importer of jobs,” Laughner said.
Tempe has distinct employment corridors and innovation hubs to maximize the accessibility of jobs for residents and employers.
Courtesy City of Tempe
(Courtesy City of Tempe)
As far as the city is concerned, this trend will continue given new businesses eying the employment corridors and Tempe’s more recent innovation hub strategy that focuses on integrating business with the “fabric of Tempe.”
Businesses that are expanding and locating to Tempe want a workforce that is readily available and within reasonable proximity to the office — a benefit to both employers and employees with hopefully decreased travel times for the latter.
Bringing it back to the transportation component, Laughner emphasized how city plans for the future are heavily interconnected between departments, as housing, transit and parks all have impacts on economic development.
“We don’t work in a vacuum. We all really work together, and if the city was not making its investments in these other areas, I don’t think that economic development would be as successful as we are,” Laughner said.
Water conservation
After a record-breaking summer heat and continued talks of drought preparedness across the Valley, water is definitely a priority for Tempe and its projected population growth.
But unlike other municipalities, Tempe feels confident in its existing supply, with residents doing their part to reduce water consumption and contribute to water conservation efforts spearheaded by the city.
It also helps that a large portion of the city’s water portfolio comes from the Salt River Project rather than the Colorado River, which has been experiencing a historic drought.
According to the city’s Water Utilities Division, SRP surface water accounts for 82% of the city’s supply, while the Colorado River water through the Central Arizona Project only accounts for 6% of Tempe’s water demands.
Residential water usage in Tempe has been decreasing since 2006 despite a growing population.
Courtesy City of Tempe
(Courtesy City of Tempe)
“Tempe plans ahead 100 years for growth. We aim to maintain a diverse water resources portfolio that is sufficient to meet our current and future growth,” Interim Water Resources Manager Tina Sleeper said.
She noted that the city has seen success with its 30-year water conservation program, with residential water demands dropping despite the population growing.
As a result of increases in water efficiency through new technologies and better practices indoors and out, water consumption has become “decoupled” from the population, meaning as the number of Tempe residents grows, it doesn’t necessarily mean water consumption will also increase. However, Sleeper expects an increase in water usage as a result of redevelopment and increased density in some areas of the city.
“We partner with other city departments just to ensure that our growth and development always aligns with available supplies, which can allow Tempe to grow sustainably while supporting the existing water needs of our community,” Sleeper said.
Like other Valley cities, Tempe has measures in place to address water needs, storing water in the ground and investing in relevant infrastructure among other things.
Special to the Independent/Arianna Grainey
(Special to the Independent/Arianna Grainey)
Across the board, residential and non-residential water consumption has experienced about a 20% decrease with the total water usage between the two groups being split evenly.
Non-residential water consumption consists of landscape, irrigation, commercial and industrial uses, whereas the other half of the city’s supply is for multi-family and single-family water usage.
Currently, the city has the most data about residential water usage as it has been steadier and also the focus over the last few decades in the field of water resources.
Sleeper said that in the future, it will be beneficial to focus efforts on the non-residential side to optimize and improve the management of their water usage given the voluntary strides made by residential customers to be more water conscious.
Going forward, the city is investing millions into water resources and infrastructure along with making the most of its existing water portfolio. It’s also in the process of rehabilitating the Kyrene Water Reclamation Plant to increase the reuse of reclaimed water.
“It takes a tremendous amount of investment in infrastructure, increase in education and water conservation actions from our partners, including our customers, in order to make sure that we stay resilient and drought prepared for the future,” she said.
Reporter Caroline Yu can be reached at cyu@iniusa.org
To voice your opinion on this story, connect with us at AzOpinions@iniusa.org.
Meet Caroline Caroline Yu joined Independent Newsmedia, Inc., USA, in 2020 as a summer intern covering Scottsdale. As an intern, she continued her coverage of Scottsdale, Paradise Valley and Tempe. After graduating in 2022, Caroline became a full-time reporter for Scottsdale and Paradise Valley. She is currently reporting for the Tempe market.
Community: She is a supporter of the environment and tries to get involved with related community events.
Education: Arizona State University with a BA in Journalism and Mass Communications, with a minor in French.
Random Fact: She used to be a ballet dancer for 10 years.
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