Top 5 things to watch in Arizona education in 2026

By Stacy Mantle
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As Arizona looks toward 2026, education policy is no longer shaped solely at the state Capitol.

Federal education signals — from civil rights enforcement to accountability expectations — are increasingly influencing how Arizona schools operate, what districts can fund and how classrooms are governed. Those shifts are arriving just as the state confronts unresolved questions about school funding, teacher staffing, enrollment declines and the future of inclusive educational practices.

Changes in federal posture do not automatically rewrite state law, but they do affect compliance, litigation risk and access to federal funding — especially for districts serving high-need students. For Arizona, where federal dollars play a critical role in special education services, low-income and rural student support and civil rights protections, alignment matters. District leaders are watching closely as state education officials reassess standards language, legal boundaries and accountability frameworks in response to national signals.

Against that backdrop, 2026 is shaping up as a year of consequential decisions. Budget negotiations tied to the renewal of Proposition 123, ongoing teacher shortages, enrollment-driven school closures, debates over diversity and inclusion and a statewide election for Superintendent of Public Instruction are no longer isolated issues. Together, they form a policy crossroads — one that could determine how well Arizona schools can balance fiscal responsibility, federal compliance and student outcomes in the years ahead.

1. Proposition 123 renewal and K-12 funding stability

Issue: After the expiration of Proposition 123, Arizona’s public schools are facing funding uncertainty, with what officials say is a strain on high-cost service areas such as special education.

Stats: Proposition 123 expired at the end of June 2025, removing roughly $300 million per year from supplemental school funding. At the same time, districts continue to report that state special education funding does not fully cover the federally mandated costs of services required under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, forcing schools to backfill SPED expenses from general operating budgets.

Solution: Any Proposition 123 renewal or replacement funding framework will need to account for the growing share of district budgets consumed by special education services, including staffing, transportation and compliance costs. 

Why Watch: How lawmakers address special education funding within broader K-12 finance discussions will signal whether Arizona is prepared to meet federal mandates sustainably — or continue relying on local districts to absorb structural shortfalls.

2. Teacher workforce and recruitment

Issue: Arizona continues to contend with significant teacher shortages and challenges retaining educators, especially in high-need schools and rural areas. District leaders report vacancies are no longer isolated staffing gaps but persistent structural issues that affect course offerings, class sizes and student supports.

Stats: During the 2025–26 school year, the AZED’s Educator Recruitment and Retention survey reported ongoing gaps in staffing across districts, with more than 1,000 positions remaining open or temporarily filled well into the school year. Shortages are most pronounced in special education, math, science and CTE programs.

Solution: Expanded investment in programs like the Arizona Teachers Academy, alternative certification pathways, mentorship programs and targeted retention incentives can strengthen the educator pipeline. However, qualified teachers consistently cite rising burnout, noncompetitive pay, increased workload and diminished classroom support as primary reasons for leaving the profession — signaling that recruitment alone will not solve the problem without retention reforms.

Why Watch: Workforce shortages disrupt instructional continuity, limit access to specialized courses and weaken student support services, with downstream effects on literacy, math achievement and graduation rates. Over time, persistent staffing instability directly undermines Arizona’s workforce readiness goals by affecting the quality and consistency of instruction students receive.

3. School choice, enrollment shifts and district realignment

Issue: Arizona’s expansive school choice landscape — including universal Empowerment Scholarship Accounts, charter schools and open enrollment — continues to reshape public school enrollment and district finances. For many districts, declining enrollment is no longer a short-term fluctuation but a sustained trend requiring structural adjustments.

Stats: Districts across Arizona have reported multiyear enrollment declines tied to demographic shifts and increased participation in ESAs, with some districts planning school closures, consolidations or boundary changes to manage fixed costs. Because state funding is largely enrollment-driven, even modest student losses can translate into significant budget reductions, particularly for smaller and rural districts.

Solution: Districts and policymakers are focused on long-term planning strategies, including right-sizing facilities, rethinking school models and reinvesting in academic and extracurricular programs that retain and attract families. Improved data transparency around enrollment trends and clearer fiscal guardrails could help communities better understand the trade-offs involved.

Why Watch: Enrollment patterns directly influence staffing levels, program availability and the sustainability of neighborhood schools. How Arizona manages these shifts will shape not only district budgets, but also community identity, access to services and educational equity across regions.

4. DEI language in standards and classroom culture

Issue: Arizona’s State Board of Education voted in late 2025 to begin reviewing language associated with diversity, equity and inclusion from state teaching standards. The discussion reflects broader national tensions over how states interpret civil rights obligations while responding to political pressure around curriculum and instruction.

Stats: The review is unfolding amid federal oversight tied to civil rights compliance and access to billions of dollars in federal education funding, including Title I and special education support. Advocates for maintaining DEI-aligned language argue its removal could weaken protections for historically underserved students, while supporters say standards should remain narrowly focused on academic content.

Solution: Moving forward, state leaders will need to engage educators, families and civil rights experts transparently, clearly define what instructional standards are (and are not) intended to regulate, and ensure alignment with federal civil rights law. Clear guidance can help districts navigate compliance while maintaining inclusive classroom practices.

Why Watch: How Arizona resolves this debate will shape classroom culture, district policy decisions and the state’s relationship with federal education authorities. The outcome will also signal to educators and families how the state balances academic priorities, local control and equitable access to education in 2026 and beyond.

5. 2026 Superintendent of Public Instruction election

Issue: The Nov. 3 election for Arizona Superintendent of Public Instruction will place education leadership — and potentially divergent visions on key policy areas — at the forefront of the state’s political agenda. Candidates are expected to debate not just school choice and funding, but also standards, accountability and support for vulnerable learners.

Stats: Ballotpedia currently lists incumbent Superintendent Tom Horne running for reelection, along with challengers in both Republican and Democratic primaries, with the general election set for Nov. 3. These challengers, so far, include Dr. Stephen Neal Jr. (No Labels Party) and Democrat Teresa Leyba Ruiz.

Solution: Voter engagement around policy platforms, including how to sustainably fund services amid evolving federal compliance and workforce needs, will help clarify expectations for K-12 leadership. 

Why Watch: Education leadership will influence how Arizona balances fiscal constraints, compliance with federal mandates and classroom priorities in areas such as staffing, accountability and equitable opportunities for students with disabilities. 

Looking ahead

Hovering over all of these structural debates are other issues, including new types of learning such as AI schools  and addressing ongoing issues like  chronic absenteeism — a persistent indicator of student disengagement.  Student outcomes will remain just as critical.

Editor’s note: A grant from the Arizona Local News Foundation made this story possible. The foundation awarded 15 newsrooms to pay for solutions-focused education reporters for two years. Please submit comments at yourvalley.net/letters or email them to AzOpinions@iniusa.org. We are committed to publishing a wide variety of reader opinions, as long as they meet our Civility Guidelines.

Stacy Mantle
Education Solutions Reporter

smantle@iniusa.org

Meet Stacy
Stacy Mantle is joining the team at Independent Newsmedia, Inc. as an Education Solutions journalist, thanks to a grant from the Arizona Community Collaborative. She has a long history in education that ranges from teaching junior high and middle school to developing curriculum and standards-based assessments.

Community: A longtime advocate for animal welfare, Stacy is deeply involved in rescue efforts and volunteers with several nonprofit organizations.

Random Fact: Once upon a time, she shared her home with a pet coyote and two wolf hybrids. The experiences were wild enough to become the subject of her first book!

Education: She holds a BA in English with a minor in Political Science, a Post-baccalaureate in Secondary Education, and an MBA with a emphasis on Marketing.

Hobbies: In her spare time, Stacy writes fast-paced urban fantasy novels, crafts small-batch artisan soap, and is always up for hiking or off-roading through the Arizona wilderness with her husband of 23 years.