School closures in Arizona: Politics, parents or population decline?

By Stacy Mantle
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For what may be the first time, Arizona public schools are seeing enrollment declines.

The results have been public school district officials searching for solutions, and critics of public schools saying they only have themselves to blame.

Arizona schools Superintendent Tom Horne blamed what he called “woke ideology” for enrollment losses and subsequent school closures in a statement on Oct. 14.

He pointed to a recent Scottsdale Unified School District event that encouraged “nonbinary and gender expansive youth” to participate in a bicycling program.

“Parents have a choice, so they move their children,” Horne said. “The school boards in these districts have no one to blame but themselves for allowing the classroom to be corrupted from a place of learning to a venue for indoctrination.”

Horne criticized Kyrene Elementary School District and Paradise Valley Unified School District for maintaining diversity and social-emotional learning initiatives, saying those programs “rob children of precious instructional time for academics.”

“Districts can change this and renew their focus on the essential subjects of reading, math, science, history and the arts,” Horne added.

Districts disagree

District officials, however, attribute closures to declining enrollment and financial pressures, not political programming. Scottsdale and Kyrene took immediate issue with Horne's comments.

“Superintendent Tom Horne has again used his platform to target Scottsdale Unified School District  based upon incorrect facts and spurious allegations.  This time it is based upon SUSD’s distribution of flyers to promote community events,” said Dr. Scott Menzel, superintendent of SUSD.

The group, Girls in Gear, is 501(c)(3) nonprofit, not affiliated with the district, distributed flyers for an event that "included inclusive language regarding gender identity," but came with a disclaimer from the district, Menzel said.

"The flyer includes the standard SUSD disclaimer stating: The Scottsdale Unified School District neither endorses nor sponsors the organization or activity represented in this material. The distribution or display of this material is provided as a community service," he said.

Laura Toenjes, superintendent of Kyrene ESD agreed. 

“Mr. Horne has once again demonstrated his lack of understanding of social-emotional learning. SEL is a broad term for educational efforts that support student success by cultivating a sense of belonging, encouraging positive behavior and teaching critical self-management skills, all of which help ensure our students achieve academic excellence,” she said.

Toenjes added that Kyrene's practices don't differ substantially from any other school district.

“Nearly every school district practices some form of SEL," she said. "Anyone with questions about how SEL is specifically implemented in Kyrene, should visit the Social Emotional Support page of the Kyrene website.”

Real reasons behind school closures

Like many states, Arizona is seeing broad demographic shifts and lower birth rates. Data from the National Center for Education Statistics show Arizona’s school-age population has grown more slowly than neighboring states. Districts that once built schools for rapid growth are now managing empty classrooms.

This demographic shift also comes as Empowerment Scholarship Accounts, which allow parents to use public funds to pay for schools, expands with a multitude of charter, private and students educated at home.

The ongoing conversation over school closures has become increasingly political, with some parents citing concerns about social-emotional learning, gender identity topics and perceived “woke” policies, while others emphasize teacher shortages, housing costs and state funding inequities as key factors.

The truth is somewhat more complex.

Kyrene ESD

When Kyrene ESD previously enrolled 12,000 students, there were only 14 schools, Toenjes said during an October school board meeting. Though Kyrene has the capacity to serve 20,000 students, its current enrollment is still 12,000. That figure is projected to drop to 11,000 during the next five years.

As a result, district officials are considering closing eight of 25 schools with a ninth repurposed as a gifted academy. After feedback, two schools were removed from the initial list. A final decision is not expected until December. 

“For the first time in its 137-year history, Kyrene is considering school closures,” said Toenjes. “The possibility of closing any Kyrene school is deeply painful and I carry that weight with me — as does everyone in this room.”

Because the district operates 25 schools with that same enrollment, Toenjes said that means “our classrooms are sitting empty, resources are spread thin and it is becoming harder to sustain the things that make Kyrene exceptional.”

Kyrene cites declining birthrates, housing costs, charter growth and Arizona’s universal ESA expansion as compounding factors behind enrollment decline. 

“Enrollment loss in Kyrene is due to declining birth rates; an aging population remaining in their homes; and rising real estate costs that limit the number of affordable homes for families with school-age children,” Toenjes said. “To a lesser degree, declining enrollment is a result of choice (private schools, charters, microschools, online or home schooling). These trends began more than a decade ago. Any suggestion that social emotional learning or DEI policies are the cause of proposed school closures is simply not based in reality.”

Scottsdale Unified

The Scottsdale board is weighing the closure of Pima Elementary and Echo Canyon K-8 with a public hearing set for Nov. 13 and a final vote schedued in December. SUSD cites low campus enrollment, overall enrollment decline and budget pressure. 

Coverage emphasizes declining birth rates, decreased enrollment and rising costs. While the ESA program is part of the statewide context, it is not singled out by SUSD officials in their reports.

SUSD’s own “For the Record” materials discuss declining enrollment dynamics and rebut the idea that it’s primarily “parent dissatisfaction.”

“Superintendent Horne did not reach out to learn more about SUSD’s public service via its distribution system before issuing a statement incorrectly tying declining enrollment (a 15-year trend in Scottsdale) with a political agenda that has been misrepresented as noted above,” said Menzel.

District staff continue to focus on "elevating excellence" and ensuring students are meeting and exceeding state requirements in all subjects, Menzel said.

"This misrepresentation is a disservice to the public servants who are working tirelessly on behalf of our 20,000 prek-12 students," he said.

Paradise Valley Unified

Last year, the board voted to close three schools — Sunset Canyon Elementary, Desert Springs Prep, Vista Verde Middle — in PVUSD effective July 1, 2024. Boundary changes accompanied the closures.

District and coverage highlight multiyear enrollment decline and stagnant local growth. Some local reporting also flags state vouchers and housing affordability as contributors cited by some stakeholders.

PVUSD’s own FAQ frames the closures as one part of a budget/enrollment strategy primarily tied to sustained enrollment decline  attributed to falling birthrates, migration, housing patterns and ESA competition. 

Scottsdale and Kyrene explicitly attribute these decisions to under-utilized buildings and district-wide right-sizing.

The Broader View

Education experts say the trend reflects a national pattern. Public school systems across the country have lost nearly 1.2 million students since 2020, largely due to population changes and school choice programs, such as ESAs.

Districts statewide are consolidating campuses, redrawing boundaries and seeking new ways to rebuild community trust. Horne maintains that a renewed focus on academics will help reverse the trend, while district leaders say long-term stability will depend on consistent funding, transparent communication and family engagement.

Arizona’s universal ESA and broader choice landscape are widely described as shrinking district “market share” amid a flat/shrinking school-age population — conditions under which more districts anticipate closures. 

Editor’s note: A grant from the Arizona Local News Foundation made this story possible. The foundation awarded 15 newsrooms to pay for solutions-focused education reporters for two years. Please submit comments at yourvalley.net/letters or email them to AzOpinions@iniusa.org. We are committed to publishing a wide variety of reader opinions, as long as they meet our Civility Guidelines.

Stacy Mantle
Education Solutions Reporter

smantle@iniusa.org

Meet Stacy
Stacy Mantle is joining the team at Independent Newsmedia, Inc. as an Education Solutions journalist, thanks to a grant from the Arizona Community Collaborative. She has a long history in education that ranges from teaching junior high and middle school to developing curriculum and standards-based assessments.

Community: A longtime advocate for animal welfare, Stacy is deeply involved in rescue efforts and volunteers with several nonprofit organizations.

Random Fact: Once upon a time, she shared her home with a pet coyote and two wolf hybrids. The experiences were wild enough to become the subject of her first book!

Education: She holds a BA in English with a minor in Political Science, a Post-baccalaureate in Secondary Education, and an MBA with a emphasis on Marketing.

Hobbies: In her spare time, Stacy writes fast-paced urban fantasy novels, crafts small-batch artisan soap, and is always up for hiking or off-roading through the Arizona wilderness with her husband of 23 years.