By Cecilia Chan

Independent Newsmedia

It may be an uphill battle but a Democrat has the chance to win the Congressional District 8 seat, long held in Republican hands, according to a progressive public opinion and political strategy research firm.

A recent survey by Washington, D.C-based Lake Research Partners among likely voters in the district, which includes most of the West Valley, shows Republican Debbie Lesko is vulnerable to defeat at the special general election April 24 against Democrat Hiral Tipirneni. The survey was released by Ms. Tipirneni’s campaign.

Hiral Tipirneni

“It is in no way surprising a Democratic polling firm paid by Democrats releases a poll claiming a Democrat can win in the West Valley,” said Barrett Marson, a spokesman for Ms. Lesko’s campaign. “Noticeably absent from this poll is the result of a head-to-head match up between Debbie Lesko and Ms. Tipirneni. That is because Ms. Tipirneni is out of touch with the West Valley and the voters long represented by Debbie Lesko.”

According to Lake Research Partners, Republicans nominated a “flawed candidate at a time when likely voters are repulsed by Congress and ready for change. The firm called the race “winnable.”

Ms. Lesko is a former state senator who beat 11 GOP opponents in February to nab her party’s nomination. Ms. Tipirneni, an emergency room doctor with no public office experience, won the Democratic primary against a sole challenger.

Debbie Lesko

Congressional District 8, which President Trump won by 21 percentage points in 2016, leans Republican. Mr. Franks, a conservative Republican ran unopposed by a Democrat in his last two elections. He resigned in December over allegations of inappropriate behavior against two women staffers, spurring the special election.

Of the 455,615 registered voters in the district, 187,129 call themselves Republicans, 109,852 are Democrats and 153,373 are considered undesignated party or independents, according to Maricopa County Elections.

The Feb. 28 special primary saw a 25.6 percent voter turnout, of which 41.3 percent of Republicans cast a ballot versus 33.3 percent of Democrats.

However, anything is possible in this Republican stronghold, according to Professor Richard Herrera, associate director at the School of Politics and Global Studies at Arizona State University.

There is a chance for a Democrat to win the race, Mr. Herrera said, pointing to this week’s special congressional election in Pennsylvania, where Democrat Conor Lamb won against Republican Rick Saccone with a razor-thin margin for a seat that should have never have gone to a Democrat. That state's 18th Congressional District also went for Mr. Trump by 20 percentage points in the last presidential election.

“This district is similar in party registration as the one in Pennsylvania and we saw how that went,” Mr. Herrera said. “The difference I think comes down to the candidates on the Republican side. Like the Pennsylvania race the Democrat is a newcomer. So while she is young and professional and vibrant, she is also less well known in the area and has no prior elected experience. The person she is running against is a former state senator who has run and won in that area a multiple of times.”

And aligning oneself with President Trump may not do any good in April, according to Mr. Herrera. The president endorsed Mr. Saccone, even attending a campaign rally in Western Pennsylvania in support of the candidate days before the election.

With what he’s read, Mr. Herrera said Mr. Saccone, a former four-term state representative, did not run a good race.

“Given the stakes, the Republican Party will do everything it can that Debbie Lesko is well prepared to run a strong race,” he said. “What is unclear now is to what extent the Democratic Party will support the Democratic candidate because she is a newcomer.”

Congressional District 8 has a majority Republican registration followed by independents or no preference, followed by Democrats so it’s a tough battle for anyone, Mr. Herrera said.

“It’s a real uphill battle but given the changes we see, it’s not impossible,” he said. “The Democrats are encouraged by the Pennsylvania results, which suggests an opening in all the races.”

The survey’s key findings include:

• Democrats are as motivated as Republicans to vote. This has been the trend since Donald Trump was inaugurated, and it continues today. Fifty-one percent of all voters rate themselves a “10” on a 0-10 motivation scale. While 51 percent of registered Republicans rate themselves a “10,” the same is true for 52 percent of registered Democrats. Among all Democrat Hiral Tipirneni voters, 55 percent rate themselves a “10” compared to 54 percent of Republican Debbie Lesko’s supporters.

• Ms. Lesko underperforms partisanship and takes less than a majority in the initial vote. Fifty-one percent of voters are registered Republicans, but Ms. Lesko takes only 48 percent in the initial trial heat. Ms. Tipirneni outperforms partisanship, taking 34 percent in the initial vote. If Ms. Tipirneni is to win this race, she must earn double-digit support from Republicans, and right now, 23 percent of registered Republicans are voting for Ms. Tipirneni or are undecided. By the end of the survey, once Ms. Tipirneni defines herself and defines Ms. Lesko, the race becomes a tie within the margin of error.

• Voters’ distaste for Republicans in Congress and their disappointment in Ms. Lesko’s own job performance adds to her vulnerability. Nearly eight-in-10 voters (78 percent) say Republicans in the United States Congress are doing a just fair or poor job. Among registered Republicans, 70 percent say Republicans in Congress are doing a just fair or poor job. Ms. Lesko cannot escape this ill-will among voters, and she, too, receives negative job performance ratings: 44 percent say Ms. Lesko is doing a just fair or poor job, while just 32 percent say she is doing an excellent or good job.

• Ms. Lesko carries significant baggage. Voters have serious doubts about Ms. Lesko because her state legislative campaign gave $50,000 to a super-PAC that spent the money to promote her congressional campaign. They also doubt her qualifications for Congress based on her ties to corporate special interests, going back on her word on taxes, and her push to expand the state’s voucher program in education. These negatives against Ms. Lesko undermine her credibility with Republicans and moderates and have helped energize the Democratic base around Ms. Tipirneni. (Editor’s note: The Arizona Secretary of State dismissed the state complaint about the money transfer filed by a Republican opponent but the jury’s out on a federal complaint filed with the Federal Election Commission by the Campaign Legal Center, a Washington-based group that supports stricter enforcement of campaign regulations).

• This was not a benign sample for Democrats. Republicans comprise 51 percent of the likely electorate, and 59 percent of voters view President Trump favorably. The generic Republican takes 50 percent of the initial vote. Given these parameters, Ms. Lesko’s weaknesses are even more glaring.

Source: Lake Research Partners