K-12 expenditures/pupil have very little impact on pupil achievement. From 1971 through 2012, NAEP 17-year-old math scores rose 2 points and reading scores rose 3 points.
NAEP high school testing was then superseded by international tests. Scores dropped 16 points in math and rose 6 points in reading from 2012 through 2022. Overall, an 18-point decline in math and a 9-point increase in reading for an inflation-adjusted per-pupil spending increase of 165%. Data show funding/pupil only explains about 3% of the variance in pupil achievement — $11 trillion wasted K-12 in public schools 1971 to 2022.
What does make a difference? Home background, often measured as “socioeconomic status.” Income, parents’ income, education and marital status, along with area characteristics (e.g., crime) and home ownership rates comprise much of that measure. SES explains about 61% of the variation in pupil achievement — 20X as much as funding!
Confusion comes from 1) additional funding formerly boosted pupil achievement — when funding levels were much lower and 2) the fact that high-SES states are mostly in the Northeast, areas that also have high spending.
There is good news, however. From what I’ve seen, most Arizona public schools fail to follow best practices such as widespread use of low-cost AI-provided tutoring, frequent observations of teachers in classrooms, strong linkage of pupil actual vs. expected gains to teacher bonuses vs. very little/no linkage, very strong encouragement of parent involvement and learning from high-performing entities.
If Arizona schools faithfully did these things, credible AI analyses show Arizona pupil achievement would substantially improve, become competitive with Northeastern states and close the gap with Asian nations.
More money isn’t needed in Arizona schools — just better management!
Editor’s note: Loyd Eskildson is former chief deputy superintendent of the Maricopa County School Superintendent Office. He lives in Paradise Valley. Please send your comments to AzOpinions@iniusa.org. We are committed to publishing a wide variety of reader opinions, as long as they meet our Civility Guidelines.
