By Howard Fischer
Mail | X: @azcapmedia

PHOENIX — The law of supply and demand is going to drive up the cost of your Thanksgiving dinner this year.

A new report from the Arizona Farm Bureau Federation pegs the cost of a traditional holiday dinner this year for 10 at $53.38. That compares with $51.89 a year ago.

The biggest driver of that change is the centerpiece of the whole affair: a 16-pound young tom turkey.

Last year you could pick up such a bird in Arizona for about $1.14 a pound according to shoppers for the federation. This year it’s up to $1.21 because of a smaller supply of turkeys.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported that turkey meat production this year through September was 3.86 billion pounds, as decrease of 6.3% from a year earlier. And that, in turn, is driving up the cost of the bird by slightly more than a dollar

The good news is that the avian flu that decimated turkey supplies two years ago appears to no longer be a factor.

That virus led to a large reduction in turkey production in 2022. And that had the ripple effect of putting the cost of that 16-pound bird that year to $32.03 — compared with $19.36 this year — and upping the cost of the entire 2022 feast to a record $71.88.

The 2.8% overall increase in the year-over-year price of a Thanksgiving dinner is a bit of a surprise on one front.

According to most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the overall costs of buying food for home consumption in the Phoenix area — the only Arizona survey it conducts — is up just 0.8% from a year earlier. But that figure tells only part of the story, as it is an aggregate of other elements.

For example, BLS recorded a 3.2% increase in the cost of cereals and bakery products. And the price of meats, poultry, fish and eggs overall is 2.5% higher than a year earlier.

By contrast, fruits and vegetables are up just 1.4% — with a 2.9% year-over-year decrease in what consumers are paying for dairy and related products.
Some of those differences are reflected in the prices Farm Bureau Federation shoppers said they were finding at Arizona grocery stores.

For example, the cost of purchasing two frozen pie shells — something made from grains — is up by 58 cents, to $3.32. Yet that 30 ounce can of pumpkin pie mix to fill those shells can be had for $4.67, a 13-cent decrease.
Despite the fact the BLS finds that dairy costs in the past year are down, shoppers are paying more this year for both whole milk and whipping cream than a year ago.

What’s important to note in all this, however, is the annual survey is based on the shelf price that federation shoppers found when they went to the store. It does not include additional savings that may be available for customers who hold a grocer’s affinity card.

There are some deals to be had, as grocers cut prices on key items in hopes that it will get shoppers into their stores — and filling up their baskets with everything else.

It is not unusual for the major chains to offer frozen turkeys just ahead of the holiday for 99 cents a pound as an incentive to lure in customers who have the company’s affinity card and who buy at least $25 worth of other groceries.

Fry’s already has Butterball turkeys at that price. And its own Kroger turkeys are being offered at 89 cents a pound.

And it often is a race to the bottom, with competitors willing to match or beat the deal.

Safeway, for example, has turkeys as low as 87 cents a pound.

But if you’re planning ahead for that big dinner, remember that it takes about four days in the refrigerator — the preferred method — to defrost a 16-pound bird.