Queen Creek officials prepare for slower population growth

The era of population hyper growth in Queen Creek is over, at least for the near future, and it is one reason town officials are tempering revenue projections for the next five years.

The Queen Creek Town Council began the first phase of the budgeting process for the 2026-27 fiscal year by approving an adjustment, or “reset,” for the current year’s operating budget with a net increase of $2.5 million.

But looking at the next five years, town officials are curbing their expectations for population growth, sales and construction tax revenue, and building permits.

At its most recent meeting, the council heard from Deputy Town Manager and CFO Scott McCarty about the changing revenue and population estimates and what that means for Queen Creek’s future.

“We think the hyper growth is believed to be over at least for the foreseeable future,” he said. “We’re going to see a lower rate of population increases. That means we’re not growing at 10%, we might be growing at 6%. I want to emphasize the fact that we are growing, but the rate at which we’re growing is not what we’ve seen in the last three to five years.”

Outside factors playing out on the national and international stage are also impacting projected revenue.

“Anything from federal policy to the Iran War to inflation and gas prices — these are all the types of things that when we look at our revenue projections, they have some sort of influencing factor on how people are spending money in the community and specifically what’s subject to sales tax, home affordability and those types of things,” McCarty said.

The slowdown is being felt in this year’s operating budget, which has seen the projection of sales tax revenue revised downward by $5.1 million from $69.3 million to $64.2 million.

“The adopted (fiscal year) ’25-26 budget included an aggressive (sales tax) estimate of revenue growth based on prior years’ double-digit growth trends; however, actual results to date reflect a more modest growth rate compared to prior years,” according to a staff report.

Sales tax revenue, not including construction sales, makes up the largest piece of the operating budget at 39%. The town is projecting sales tax revenue of $68.5 million for fiscal year 2026-27.

Despite the downward revision, year-over-year sales tax revenue growth is estimated to be 9% this fiscal year.

“This growth continues to be a combination of recent population growth, new businesses that have opened in Queen Creek in the last year, and the impacts inflation has had on increasing the cost of taxable goods,” the report continued.

Pointing toward continued — if somewhat slower — population growth is the town issuance of 633 single-family permits from July 2025 through December 2025, with the original fiscal year forecast set at 815 permits for single-family homes.

“This forecast has been increased to 890 permits for single-family based on development activity and permit trending. The original budget for multifamily permits was 535 and has been adjusted up to 716 for (fiscal year) ’25-26 based on existing and planned development activity,” according to the report.

McCarty pointed out that while buildable lot inventory is expected to increase slightly during the next two years, assured water requirements will continue to slow growth.

“It’s absolutely critical to continue to build this inventory of buildable lots that has been somewhat restricted because of restrictions coming from the assured water supply,” McCarty said. “Hopefully that adds some context to how and why we’re not expecting as many people to come here in the next couple of years. We do think there’s a little bit of influence coming from the buildable lots.”

The town is working to become a designated water supplier with a major step in that direction being the purchase of a total of 1.7 million-acre feet of water from the Harquahala Valley basin west of the Phoenix area.

Even with slowing growth, McCarty emphasized the town has had a history of performing better economically than Arizona and the nation.

“We’re still on a trajectory for a fantastic buildout and growth. It’s just a little slower and a little a longer time period at a lower rate than we think,” he said. “We’re solid. We’re moving forward in the right direction. But sometimes things slow down and we’ll adjust accordingly. Some things we can control and some things we can’t.”

Janet Perez can be reached at jperez@iniusa.org. Please send your comments about this article to AzOpinions@iniusa.org. We are committed to publishing a wide variety of reader opinions, as long as they meet our Civility Guidelines.