The Mesa Public Schools district predicts an enrollment of less than 40,000 students in school year 2035-36 from 48,700 students in the 2025-26 school year.
At the Jan. 8 study session district officials presented these trends to the board and discussed solutions to improve enrollment despite declining school-age population and school choice leading many families to go out of the district at the high school level.
There are also 36 charter schools and 31 private schools in the district boundaries, with many families choosing those schools. Many of these families also live out of district.
“Of the 15,000 students (going to charter schools) about half of them do not reside withing Mesa Public School’s boundaries,” said Kristi Glassmeyer, senior research analyst for the district.
She explained that other competitors include the Tempe, Chandler and Gilbert unified school districts as well as neighboring charters like Heritage Academy charter school and American Leadership Academy that both host K-12 students.
Board member Marcie Hutchinson said the district should look further into why students are choosing to go out of the district.
Glassmeyer explained during the presentation that while some families are choosing to go out of district, the school choice vouchers are also bringing students into the district.
“While there are choices made by families with the school choice option that exists within this state, we’re also seeing them go to different areas as well,” she said.
Superintendent Matt Strom said while the district lost 2,300 students to Gilbert Public Schools there were about 900 students who chose to come to the district from outside the district boundaries. This was mainly due to high school students choosing other college prep and career academies.
“We need to market to every parent in Mesa we have an educational option for you,” he said responding to Hutchinson’s questions.
The district has several different models including choice schools which are by application only as well as advanced and traditional high school models to accommodate students with different interests and needs.
Board member Sharon Benson said despite declining birth rates, she is concerned with the rapid decline of enrollment and that the district could do more to prevent this like marketing more to parents in the area to ensure that eighth grade students are continuing to go to high schools in the district.
Strom said more students choose to come to Mesa from Apache Junction which makes up for some of the loss to other districts.
Tyler Moore, chief business officer, explained how this will impact the district’s budget moving forward.
The district currently has a $403 million budget but will see an over $18 million reduction by 2027 as a result of the enrollment decline. The state offers an inflation adjustment every year which helps with the loss of funding, however the changes to enrollment and funding are not final.
“Enrollment trends are very hard to predict. We did present some five- and 10-year estimates but those numbers can change with any high-level policy change or a change in demographic patterns,” Moore said.
The district will monitor enrollment annually to more accurately predict future enrollment and declines. Moore says this requires “forward thinking” to safely prepare for the future should enrollment and funding hit an all time low.
“As enrollment trends continue to decline it will continue to put pressure on how we staff and align educational programs in the district,” he said.
Mesa Unified School District is the largest public school district in Arizona and has six high schools, nine junior high schools, 55 elementary schools and 18 choice and success schools.
To voice your opinion on this story, connect with us at AzOpinions@iniusa.org.
Madeline Bates joined Independent Newsmedia in 2025 as a Phoenix/Tempe reporter. Before graduating college, she spent a semester in Washington as a Congressional reporter in the first 100 days of the second Trump administration. But local news is where her heart is. She is excited to be in Phoenix full time and exploring new parts of the city (as long as they have AC).
Community: After living in East Phoenix for two years, she fell in love with Paradise Valley, Mesa, Tempe, and everywhere in between. She recently discovered the beauty of the South Mountain Reserve and hopes to continue exploring should the weather comply.
Education: Madeline has a degree in Journalism and Mass Communications from Arizona State University’s Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and a certificate in Political History and Leadership.
Random Fact: She is a self-taught nail tech. No, she cannot do your nails.
Hobbies: Hiking (when its not 100 degrees), fiction writing, cooking, baking and trying new coffee shops.
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