Expert sees more of the same for Valley, national housing markets in 2026

By Philip Haldiman
Mail | X: @PhilipHaldiman

A leading voice on the housing sector is forecasting the industry will see more of the same in 2026.

It’s all about stability, says Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, a real estate technology and data company.

Wolf spoke at the annual Land Advisors Organization land and housing forecast at Camelback Inn in Paradise Valley Dec. 16.

She said consumer confidence, the labor market, and housing affordability are reasons to be negative.

Consumers need to feel confident enough to jump back into the housing market before things get better, which means stability in the labor market, interest rates, prices and stability from policymakers.

“To me, it all comes down to one word: stability,” Wolf said.
“I hate to say, it but there are a lot of reasons to feel negative of what could really free up the market. Pillars of our industry — do consumers have confidence? No. Do consumers feel good in the labor market? No. Do consumers have housing affordability? Some of them do. Those are some of the drags we are paying attention to. Can they change? Yes. Consumer confidence can change shockingly quick. Consumer sentiment as a whole can shift. The labor market can shift.”

In the Valley, local experts say the greater Phoenix area has reached a balanced market, and a buyer’s market.

New Phoenix home listings in November are up 0.6% year over year, and the median sold home price is $477,900, up 3.4% year over year, according to data from Phoenix Realtors.

Speaking of more of the same, Zonda is predicting mortgage rates will stay around mid-6% in the coming year.

One factor that could play into the housing market next year is the exit of Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends May 15, said Wolf.

“I am having too much of a hard time figuring out what is going to play out ... The assumption is that the (FED) directive is going to be lower interest rates. That’s good, we know lower interest rates will help our industry, but when the FED lowers rates it doesn’t change mortgage interest rates,” Wolf said.

On the flip side, demographics and deferrals are good reasons to be positive, as well as pent-up demand that is waiting to be released once conditions improve, according to Wolf.

“Deferrals look excellent. The amount of people who keep saying not yet, not yet, not yet. Every year we keep collecting not yets. At a certain point, you can’t keep putting it off. Your kids are getting old, your house is not fit, you need to get into a good school district, you are retiring, whatever it is,” she said. “We have had four years of people deferring, deferring, deferring. The demographics for housing have never looked better. We are just in a place where consumers are needing to find where they feel OK, ‘I finally feel like now is the right time and I’m ready to re-engage with the market.’”

Senior News Editor Philip Haldiman can be reached at phaldiman@iniusa.org, or on X @philiphaldiman. Please submit comments at yourvalley.net/letters or email them to AzOpinions@inusua.org. We are committed to publishing a wide variety of reader opinions, as long as they meet our Civility Guidelines.

Philip Haldiman
Senior News Editor | Peoria

phaldiman@iniusa.org

Meet Philip
Haldiman is an award-winning journalist who most recently took first place for investigative reporting in 2023 from Arizona Newspapers Association. He joined Independent Newsmedia, Inc., USA, in 2015, covering Sun City West his first year. Since 2016, he has covered the city of Peoria. Prior to coming to INI, he was a reporter with The Arizona Republic for seven years, covering numerous cities throughout the Valley. Before that, he was a freelance writer.

Community: Haldiman spearheads the Peoria Independent Hometown Heroes Awards program, honoring local individuals and businesses that give back to the community. He has hosted local candidate forums over the years and is a member of the Society of Professional Journalists. Haldiman also served as a member of the Journalism Program Community Advisory Board at Glendale Community College. Outside journalism, Haldiman served as a member of the city of Peoria Complete Count Committee for the Census, 2019-2020. Lastly, he has served as a member of his HOA governing board since 2021.

Education: Arizona State University with a BA in Journalism and Mass Communications and a BA in Theater. 

Random Fact: Haldiman is a fourth-generation Arizonan as well as wrote and produced an autobiographical comic book about his time spent in Hollywood and his life as a cult film star.

Hobbies: He enjoys hiking Arizona’s mountainous landscapes and is currently working on a play for the stage.