OPINION — The 2026 midterm election will determine the direction of the Donald Trump presidency moving forward. While U.S. Senate control after that time is difficult to project a year out, predicting the outcome in the House of Representatives is not: The Democrats will take control of the chamber.
The first ammunition for the 2026 election prediction in the House comes from the last four decades of midterm elections, encompassing 10 cases. Since 1986, the average party seat loss in the House for the president’s party in the midterms has been 21.3 seats. This counts the rare back-to-back instances of seat gains in 1998 and 2002. In all, party control of the House has switched in five of the 10 midterm elections over the past 40 years, including 1994, 2006, 2010, 2018 and 2022.
A second area to look at in predicting the outcome of the midterm election in the House is popularity or support for parties and institutions. A Quinnipiac University survey administered after last fall’s government shutdown showed a pathetic 15% backing for Congress. While a more recent national poll by Gallup found 35% support for Congress, that is also the percentage of support reported for Republicans, who control the chamber.
