WASHINGTON – Latino support for Republicans has thinned since 2024 as President Donald Trump’s approval ratings have dropped.

In Arizona, the shift could be crucial in statewide races and three hotly contested congressional contests.

Latinos made up 23% of Arizona’s eligible voters, according to data from the state’s redistricting commission. And a large chunk of them are up for grabs, with 41% identifying as independents, according to a 2024 survey from Univision.

“I would argue that Latino voters are the ultimate swing vote,” said Ricardo Rauseo Landa of Somos Votantes, which encourages voting by Latino Democrats in Arizona and other states. 

Far more Latino registered voters identify as Democrats than as Republicans in Arizona — 42% to 18%, according to the Univision survey — but Democrats barely outnumber unaffiliated voters.

“We are very pragmatic,” Rauseo Landa said.

The relatively high number of independent Latino voters in Arizona tracks a nationwide move away from party identification, said Lisa Sanchez, associate professor at the School of Government and Public Policy at the University of Arizona. 

In 2025, a record-high number of adults in the United States identified as independents, according to a survey by Gallup. 

“Latinos are no exception,” Sanchez said, adding that because they are more likely to be split-ticket voters, they “are important voters to mobilize in competitive elections.”

Somos Votantes canvassed for Democratic nominee Jonathan Nez in Congressional District 2, where Rep. Eli Crane, R-Oro Valley, is seeking a third term. 

Trump won the district by 15 percentage points in 2024, and Crane defeated Nez by 9 percentage points. 

But the national political environment favors Democrats this year.

Trump’s aggressive immigration agenda has especially alienated many Hispanic voters, Sanchez said, and polls consistently show that economic concerns are a major factor for these and other voters.

In 2024, 48% of registered Latino voters nationwide supported Trump, according to the Pew Research Center. 

His approval among Latino voters has plummeted – from 38% when he returned to office in early 2025 to just 24% ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. Even among those who voted for him in 2024, Trump’s approval has plunged – from 93% in early 2025 to 57%. 

Samara Klar, a professor at the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy, noted that presidents’ parties typically lose seats in midterms. Trump’s historically low approval ratings will likely make that “a little more intense” than usual, she said.

On Oct. 23, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report with Amy Walter shifted its rating of the Crane-Nez race from likely Republican to lean Republican – one step above toss-up.

Latinos account for 14% of eligible voters in that district, according to Arizona Redistricting Commission data.

In Congressional District 6, Rep. Juan Ciscomani, R-Tucson, faces Democratic challenger JoAnna Mendoza. 

The Cook Political Report moved its rating in that district from toss-up to lean Democratic on Oct. 23.

In 2024, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris barely edged past Trump in the district as Ciscomani won reelection by a slim 50-47.5 margin. Roughly one in five eligible voters in that district are Latino.

Ciscomani, who was born in Mexico, has been reminding voters about his family’s journey and leans into the phrase “Proud American Immigrant.”

On Oct. 1, he was endorsed by the Libre Initiative Action, a group created in 2011 by the billionaire Koch brothers, Charles and David Koch, to improve conservative outreach to Latinos. (David Koch died in 2019.)

“He talks quite a bit about DACA and immigration reform, and the importance of border security,” said Lea Márquez Peterson, Arizona Corporation Commissioner and chairwoman of the Hispanic Leadership PAC, launched last year to promote Republican Hispanic candidates.

These are “things that really resonate with Latino families in Southern Arizona,” she said. “I think it’s going to be a tight race.”

In Congressional District 1, being vacated by Rep. David Schweikert, R-Fountain Hills, former NFL kicker and GOP candidate Jay Feely faces Democrat Amish Shah, an emergency room physician.

The contest was long seen as a toss-up. Schweikert drew 51.9% in 2024. Trump lost the district by more than 3 percentage points. 

In late September, the Cook Political Report shifted its rating from toss-up to lean Democratic.

Roughly one in 10 eligible voters is Latino.

Nationwide, a Pew Survey released Oct. 16 found that enthusiasm is on the side of Democrats among Latino voters. Those voters are far more likely to say they are “extremely motivated to vote” in congressional elections than Latino Republicans. 

And among all registered Latino voters, more than twice as many say they will vote for a Democrat as for a Republican.

The economy is the top issue for Latino voters, the Pew survey found. 

“What we’re hearing, almost in every conversation, is the economy being top of mind,” Rauseo Landa said. 

Latinos in Arizona “care about kind of the same things that everyone else cares about, which is in this election cycle, cost of living, cost of gas, and the economy,” said Klar, whose research is in political psychology. “That's really driving the vote right now, and it's driving a lot of discontent with Republicans, which is why we are seeing trends moving back toward the Democrats.”

Pita Juarez, organizer and communications consultant for Climate Power, a group that advocates for clean energy, noted that gas and electricity prices have continued to rise under Trump.

“Latino voters are seeing the evidence of false promises from Trump, where he made a lot of promises on affordability,” she said. “People have had enough.” 

In the governor’s race, Latinos favor Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, 57-20 over Rep. Andy Biggs, R-Gilbert, according to a survey released in September by the Hispanic Research Center and Center for Latina/os and American Politics Research at Arizona State University.

On Oct. 15, Hobbs announced a $6 million Spanish-language mail, media and small business engagement push.

Biggs, who enjoys Trump’s support, has held conversations with Latino small business owners during the campaign.

Turning Point Action, a conservative organization that supports Biggs, drew criticism recently for distributing artificially-generated images of state Rep. Lorena Austin, D-Mesa, holding a sign that said, “Democratas por Biggs,” which translates to Democrats for Biggs.

Juarez called it an attempt to mislead voters about the breadth of Biggs’ support in a key part of the electorate. 

“I’ve certainly seen a lot of activity on the Republican side and the Democrat side just recently with national groups coming out and endorsement signs going up, and people attempting to influence the Latino vote,” she said.

This article first appeared on Cronkite News and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.