By Howard Fischer
Mail | X: @azcapmedia

PHOENIX — The culture wars are back at the state Capitol.

But this time, Sen. John Kavanagh believes the results of the just-completed election show public sentiment is on his side on the issue of transgender rights. The Fountain Hills Republican said he believes the results of the election means the Democrats who opposed his proposals in the past are now paying attention.

One proposal simply says school employees refer to a student by a pronoun that does not match his or her — or their — biological sex. And by that, he told Capitol Media Services on Tuesday, means the sex at the time of birth as determined by anatomy.

Only if a parent gives consent would Senate Bill 1002 allow a teacher use a different pronoun.

More far reaching is his Senate Bill 1003 that prohibits the use of restrooms, locker rooms and any sleeping quarters designated for one sex by those of the opposite sex.

Kavanagh does have language requiring schools to make “reasonable accommodations” for those who refuse to use the facility that aligns with their “immutable biological sex.” That can include a single-occupancy restroom or changing facility or use of a facility normally reserved for employees.

If these seem familiar, they should: Kavanagh pushed both of them through the Legislature in 2023 — both with only Republican votes — only to have them vetoed by Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs.

But Kavanagh said this year is different, citing what he claims is a major shift in public attitudes reflected in this year’s election.

That’s not just at the national level.

He said Democratic Sen. Christine Marsh lost her race in her “swing” district that spans Phoenix and Scottsdale to Republican Carine Warner because of her arguments that the state should even allow transgender students to use showers in locker rooms. Marsh said that a shower curtain would be sufficient.

“I think some Democrats got the message that people think they are totally out of touch with society on all of these social, transgender issues,” Kavanagh said.

Marsh wasn’t the only Democratic casualty: Republicans strengthened their hold at the Legislature, picking up one seat in the Senate and two in the House.

That, however, still leaves Hobbs who retains that veto stamp.

Kavanagh said even she is reading the tea leaves of the election. He pointed out the governor now says she willing to work — at least in some form — with the incoming Trump administration on immigration and border security issues.

But gubernatorial press aide Christian Slater said Kavanagh is engaged in some wishful thinking on the issue of transgender rights.

He cited Hobbs’ veto messages of both 2023 bills. And Slater said the governor’s thinking has not changed since then.

None of that, however, may matter: Kavanagh said if he can’t get the measure past the governor, the ultimate fallback is to get around her by taking the issue directly to voters.

That, in fact, is what he tried to do earlier this year, only to be thwarted by Sen. Ken Bennett.

The Prescott Republican voted in 2023 for both the “bathroom bill” and the pronoun bill. But he balked earlier this year at sending both of them to voters, pointing out that anything approved at the ballot is constitutionally protected, meaning lawmakers cannot fix problems that develop.

That, however, was just part of his concern.

“I can probably identify three or four of my nephews and nieces that would fall under some of these situations,” he said in explaining his vote against the ballot proposal.

“And I have to always think of them on behalf of everyone who’s in one of these situations: How would I want a state law to affect them at such tender ages?” Bennett continued. Plus, he said, he didn’t want to combine both issues into a single take-it-or-leave-it ballot measure.

Kavanagh said he thinks that vote to kill his ballot proposal is the reason his constituents did not return Bennett to office.

Bennett on Tuesday acknowledged the mailers sent out by Mark Finchem, his primary foe, did include charges that he supported “transgender ideology.” But he said that’s just a piece of the puzzle.

“The people in my party who didn’t want me to be a senator any more, there were other excuses they could have come up with to do what they did,” Bennett said.

And what they did, he said, is recruit Mark Finchem, who just two years earlier had been a state representative from Oro Valley to move to Prescott to run against him and help Finchem raise more than $400,000 on a legislative race, more than three times what Bennett collected.

And Finchem, who has been at the forefront of complaints of election fraud — including both the 2020 loss by Donald Trumo and his own 2022 loss in his bid for secretary of state to Democrat Adrian Fontes — had something else: Trump’s endorsement.

With Bennett gone and a slightly larger GOP majority in the Legislature, Kavanagh figures he’s got the votes for a 2026 ballot measure.

Still, Kavanagh admitted there’s a political motive behind his legislation.

“I think the public has a right to know if the Democrats, especially swing district Democrats, have seen the light, or if they’re still far left on these social issues,” he said. “But I still wouldn’t rule out the governor signing this.”

Slater said the governor made herself clear with her vetoes.

In rejecting the pronoun bill, she called it “harmful legislation directed at transgender youth.”

“Instead of coming up with new ways to target and isolate our children, we should be working together to create an Arizona where everyone has the freedom to be who they are without fear of harassment or judgment,” Hobbs said in a 2023 post on social media.

In vetoing the bill on bathroom use, the governor said “I will not sign legislation that attacks Arizonans.”

That issue of bathroom use is not just an Arizona question. Schools aside, it also became headlines when U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson announced after last month’s election he is banning transgender women from using female bathrooms on Capitol Hill. That followed the election of Democrat Sarah McBride of Delaware, the first openly transgender member of Congress.

Kavanagh contends that polls on transgender issues — which include the separate hot-button question of transgender girls participating in girls’ sports — shows the public is supportive of his position. But the question of public attitudes is a bit murkier.

There are no recent Arizona surveys.

A 2022 poll by the Pew Research Center said 64% of those questioned support protecting transgender people from discrimination in jobs, housing and public spaces.

But the same survey showed 58% believe trans athletes should compete in teams that match the gender of their birth, versus 17% opposed. And my a 41% to 31% margin, the poll said people should use public bathrooms that match their assigned gender.

As to the issue of pronouns, a 2023 poll by the McCourtney Institute of Democracy found that 39% says teachers should be encouraged to use a student’s preferred pronoun, while 38% say that should be discouraged and the balance said it should be left up to teachers.