By Jason Stone, INDEPENDENT NEWSMEDIA

Surprise’s population growth is slowing down in comparison to some other red-hot Arizona cities, according to new U.S. Census Bureau data.

But that doesn’t mean Surprise isn’t on the fast track to another population boom.

The latest U.S. population estimates released last week found 138,161 people called Surprise home on July 1, 2018.

That’s up more than 17% from the start of the decade and about 2.4% over 2017.

Only the population explosion still continuing across the whole state is keeping Surprise’s growth from generating big news these days.

Buckeye was ranked as the fastest growing city in the nation among those with populations of at least 50,000.

The West Valley’s largest city by land mass saw an increase in population of 8.5% over last year, which topped New Braunfels, Texas (7.2%) and Apex, North Carolina (6.8%) on the list.

Queen Creek, which is just under the mark with 42,503 people, saw a growth of 8.3% last year, while Wickenburg had an increase of 5.2% over 2017.

El Mirage, which boasts 35,670 people in the 2018 estimates, saw a modest increase of 0.7% over the year before.

Inside the numbers

The new numbers show Surprise continued its stead rise in population over the last decade.

Current trends show the city could easily be in the 140,000 range during the official decennial count in April and even be knocking on the door of 200,000 by the 2030 count happens.

That kind of growth is both good news and bad news, said Ken Strobeck, executive director of the Arizona League of Cities and Towns

“It’s a mixed blessing,” Mr. Strobeck said. “It’s great to have that many people moving here and it shows the vitality of this area. But it’s also a challenge in meeting the services that those new residents demand.”

Adding new households brings some new revenue, but with more residents, cities see heavier burdens on their facilities and services, he added.

“I think the obvious challenge is finding housing for all those folks that are moving in and keeping it in the affordable range, as well as the impact that all the additional population has on infrastructure,” Mr. Strobeck said.

Streets, water supply, wastewater treatment, public services and first responders are all areas impacted by a larger population and these increases come with a larger price tag, he said.

Needs to count

The release of this week’s report also serves as a reminder, he added, of how important an accurate population count will be to local communities as the Census Bureau heads into next year’s 10-year update.

Surprise’s Complete Count team has already put a plan of attack together to make sure all citizens are counted when the 2020 Census begins on April 1.

“With the upcoming census, that’s going to be very, very important for how revenue is distributed for all cities and towns in the next decade,” Mr. Strobeck said.

The formulas for how Arizona’s 91 cities and town divvy up the state’s funding are determined by the bureau’s decade count — if a city is under-counted, it will wind up getting less than its fair share, he explained.

“This is the decade census and it sort of resets the baseline,” Mr. Strobeck said. “It’s going to be important to make sure everyone is counted, including all the new residents for this next census.”

Phoenix still rising

The latest Census estimates show Phoenix had the largest numeric increase over last year with 25,288 residents arriving. It also continues to be the fifth biggest city in the U.S., with the latest estimate at 1.7 million.

Arizona’s capital city is behind on New York City (8.4 million), Los Angeles (4.0 million), Chicago (2.7 million) and Houston (2.3 million).

Phoenix widened its lead over sixth-place Philadelphia, which now has 1.6 million people.

Four Texas cities and three California cities are among the top 11 most populous.

The new numbers show Maricopa joined the 50,000-population milestone last year, while Mesa became Arizona’s third city to break the half-million mark.

SURPRISE BY THE NUMBERS

• 2010: 117,674
• 2011: 119,648
• 2012: 122,322
• 2013: 125,114
• 2014: 127,982
• 2015: 130,449
• 2016: 132,971
• 2017: 134,915
• 2018: 138,161

Editor’s note: Matt Roy contributed to this story.