By Howard Fischer
Mail | X: @azcapmedia

PHOENIX — The losses Democrats suffered at the Arizona Legislature this election has at least one elected official exploring whether he’d be better at the top of the ticket in 2026 than incumbent Katie Hobbs.

Secretary of State Adrian Fontes told local Phoenix media he will be “seriously considering every option” when his current term is up in two years. But no announcement is forthcoming even though Fontes, two years out from any future campaign, has close to $195,000 in the bank.

All this comes on the heels of Politico reporting some unnamed Democrats, believing Hobbs is “too weak politically” to win a second term, had quietly approached Fontes. He is No. 2 in the official pecking order of state officials, first in line for the governor if there is a vacancy.

In the most recent election, Hobbs boasted about raising $500,000 in her bid to wrest control of the state House or Senate — or both — from Republican control. Picking up just one seat in either chamber would have created a tie; two seats would have put Democrats in control.

But when the dust settled, the Republicans actually picked up two seats in the House and one in the Senate.

Days after the election, Hobbs brushed off questions about whether the results showed Arizona voters favored the ideas of Republicans for solving problems, ranging from inflation and housing to border security, better than her own. Instead, she turned to her own victory two years ago over Kari Lake, saying these also were “everyday Arizonans who also elected me.”

And Hobbs said she would “absolutely not” have done anything different in the just-completed election.

“We did what we needed to do,” she said.

The question remains over exactly how strong a candidate Hobbs would be against potential Republican challengers.

Near the top of that list is Karin Taylor Robson. She was edged out of the six-way gubernatorial primary by Lake, whose campaign was based, at least in part, on her claims she had evidence Donald Trump had been cheated in the 2020 presidential election.

Given Lake’s trouncing in this year’s senatorial race, GOP voters may be looking for someone more moderate to carry the flag.

She also has access to money. Robson spent more than $23 million in her losing bid, including $18.4 million of her own cash.

Something else on the political landscape has changed. When Hobbs was elected, Democrats were nearly 30.7% of registered voters against 33.9% for Republicans. As of this year’s elections, the GOP share had increased to almost 35.8%, with Democrats now at just 29.0%.

It is against that backdrop that Democrats may need to find the strongest contender. That may not be Hobbs who managed to beat Lake by just 17,117 votes.

The incumbent governor’s supporters have noted she did have a strong showing in the 2022 primary, trouncing former Nogales Mayor Marco Lopez by a better than 3-1 margin. But as secretary of state, she also had $14.7 million to spend, versus $1.8 million for Lopez.

Still, the current governor has proven herself an impressive fundraiser. Aside from cash she raised in the ill-fated bid to wrest control of the Legislature from Republicans, her latest campaign finance reports show she has close to $3 million in the bank.

Fontes, however, is no slouch when it comes to defeating Republicans — especially those that espouse political conspiracy theories. He got elected in 2022 after he trounced then state Rep. Mark Finchem by more than 120,000 votes.

The only other incumbent Democrat in statewide office is Attorney General Kris Mayes. But despite some high-profile disputes with the governor, including over what she said has been the failure of Hobbs and her administration to protect groundwater, Mayes said she is looking at running for a second term in 2026.

The incumbent also may have done herself no favors among some elements of her party in the wake of the just-completed election.

She recently announced that, unlike some other Democratic governors, she would not take on the newly elected Trump administration and its various priorities. And just days ago, Hobbs said she will work with the new president on border security, though the governor insisted she will not cooperate of actions that “harm Arizonans.”

When specifically asked whether she would protect “dreamers” and other long-time residents from Trump’s vow of mass deportations, Hobbs punted.
“I’m not going to get into the nitty-gritty details of action that hasn’t happened yet,” she said.

There is, however, another side to the question of how much blame for the Democrats’ legislative losses can be pinned on Hobbs as leader of the party in Arizona.

Overall, it was a bad year for Democrats, not just here but nationally, with Republicans not only electing Trump as president — including a 186,000-vote win in Arizona — but also with the GOP maintaining control of the U.S. House and now having a majority in the U.S. Senate.

The only bright spot for Democrats this year was the 80,000-vote victory of Ruben Gallego over Lake.