Outbreak

Testing supplies still limited

A critical note about all of the case data presented is that it only reflects individuals who have tested positive for COVID-19. While public health and healthcare institutions continue to work to increase testing availability, the persistent limitations in supplies mean that not everyone who wants to be tested can be.”

Arizona Department of Health Services Director Dr. Cara Christ

By Matt Roy
Twitter: @AzNewsmedia

While COVID-19 testing data may reveal obvious outbreak hot spots around the Valley, what these data mean remains less clear.

The Arizona Department of Health Services launched its COVID-19 data dashboard  in response to the ongoing public health crisis, providing daily updated information about confirmed cases and deaths  — and even breaking the information down by individual ZIP codes across the state.

An analysis of the data as of Tuesday shows the highest rates of confirmed cases  — based on population density  — to include areas in North Peoria, Paradise Valley and Scottsdale.

In the North Peoria ZIP code 85382, 71 cases have been confirmed among an estimated 13,380 households, representing a rate of 5.31 cases per 1,000 households, based on DHS outbreak data and demographic data from arizona.hometownlocator.com.

In Paradise Valley’s 85253 ZIP code, 33 cases have been confirmed among 7,687 households for an average of 4.29 cases per 1,000 residences.

And in Scottsdale’s 85257 ZIP code, 55 cases among 14,720 households represents an average of 3.73 cases per 1,000.

Rounding out the top 10 hottest ZIP codes are: 85206 (Mesa)  — 3.01 per 1,000 households; 85224 (Chandler)  — 2.33; 85202 (Mesa)  — 1.84; 85142 (Queen Creek)  — 1.74; 85205 (Mesa)  — 1.67; 85301 (Glendale)  — 1.35; and 85251 (Scottsdale)  — 1.32.

In the Sun City West and Sun City area ZIP codes of 85375, 85373 and 85378, each reports 6 to 10 cases, accounting for less than 1 case per 1,000 residences.

In the nearby Sun City ZIP code 85351, 23 confirmed cases accounts for an estimated 1.13 cases per 1,000 households.

However, data in some ZIP codes may be skewed by the presence of medical facilities within them, according to a recent report from Howard Fischer of Capitol Media Services.

This is because hospitals who serve patients who don’t provide a home address may use the medical facility’s location to fill in that line.

“State health officials report that if they don’t know the home address of the patient, they include it in the ZIP code of the medical provider, followed by the address of the facility that reported the case,” the report stated.

And while prevalence data may be interesting and, perhaps, useful  — those data only reflect those cases, which have been tested and confirmed.

But a general scarcity of testing, both locally and nationally, coupled with the difficult nature of testing for COVID-19  — a virus which appears to be transmissible, even among carriers who show little or no symptoms  — may prevent officials from drawing actionable conclusions, according to DHS Director Dr. Cara Christ.

“A critical note about all of the case data presented is that it only reflects individuals who have tested positive for COVID-19. While public health and healthcare institutions continue to work to increase testing availability, the persistent limitations in supplies mean that not everyone who wants to be tested can be,” Dr. Christ stated in an April 12 blog posting. “In addition, we know that people can be infected and spread disease without showing symptoms.”

While a large portion of the population may be engaging in social distancing practices, many citizens still travel across various ZIP codes for essential business.

Plus, the currently compiled totals include weeks-old cases as well as new, making them a less-than-reliable means of tracking risk among specific communities, according to the doctor.

“Thus, while ZIP code data is informative, it should not be used to determine whether or not residents of a particular zip code are or are not at risk of COVID-19,” Dr. Christ stated.

According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, a top infectious disease expert and key aide to President Donald Trump, appropriate testing and disease tracking procedures are still not available across the U.S.

“We have to have something in place that is efficient and that we can rely on, and we’re not there yet,” Dr. Fauci said in an interview with The Associated Press on Tuesday.

Testing rates

According to DHS data, Arizona actually exceeds the national average for COVID-19 tests administered per population, though the numbers in both cases remain small.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported as of Monday, out of an estimated 328.2 million residents, 1.562 million have been tested  — this represents a rate of 4.76 per 1,000.

Arizona, by comparison, has conducted 44,096 tests among its estimated 7.28 million residents for a rate of 6.05 per 1,000. Maricopa County was in line with the state average, having tested 27,283 of its estimated 4.48 million residents for a rate of 6.08 per 1,000.

Across Arizona’s counties, the highest rates of testing have been seen in rural areas, including Apache, Navajo and Yavapai counties  — which have notched 13.05, 12.84 and 7.19 tests per 1,000 residents respectively.

Pima County, the state’s second-most populous, has conducted 5,703 tests among its 1.05 million residents for a rate of 5.44 per 1,000.

The state’s prison system, according data released by the Arizona Department of Corrections, Rehabilitation & Reentry, has tested a far lower portion its inmates.

Of its estimated 41,701 inmates, only 77 have been tested  — a rate of 1.85 tests per 1,000 inmates.

Among those living in the department’s 18 facilities, 9 cases have been confirmed and 4 test results are pending, while 64 inmates tested negative.

As of Tuesday, DHS reported 3,806 confirmed cases with 131 deaths statewide.