Arnold J. Oliver

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Quite a few people believe things that are not true, but that do not do much harm. The 70% of Americans who believe in angels would be an example of this. On the other hand, some false notions have real-world negative consequences.

We will show briefly below that millions of Americans are convinced that the Republican Party is better at managing the U.S. economy, and that they are wrong. 

A Gallup poll taken late in 2023 shows that 53% of Americans think that the Republicans are better at running the economy, a 14 percentage-point lead over the Democrats that is the highest since 1991. An IPSOS poll taken around the same time shows roughly the same thing — a 10-point lead for Republicans on the economy: 35% to 25%. An NBC poll from late 2023 shows an even wider gap of 49%  to 28% in favor of the GOP. Finally, a snap poll of those who watched the Trump-Harris debate in September also gave the Republican Party a 20-point margin on the economy, although the margin has shrunk since then. 

In late September, a Gallup poll showed these trends continuing. Americans currently give the Republican Party a 6-percentage-point edge, 50% to 44%, as the party they think would do a better job of keeping the country prosperous. 

The point remains: Tens of millions of Americans are convinced that the Republican party does a better job with the economy, and believe that the economy is the most important issue facing the country. They vote with that in mind. This is a crucial advantage for Republicans running for office at all levels. 

But the people who think that the GOP is better for the economy are mistaken, and the facts are out there to prove it. In fact, Democratic administrations do a substantially better job with the economy by almost any measure. 

Based on Bureau of Labor statistics since the end of the Cold War, there is a stunning difference between the number of jobs created under Democratic and Republican administrations. There were 50 million jobs created in the U.S. under the Clinton, Obama and Biden administrations; in contrast, the total of jobs created under the HW Bush, W Bush and Trump administrations were a paltry 1 million in total. These numbers were fact-checked by the Washington Post, and remain unchallenged to my knowledge. 

But wait, there is more. There is also a stark difference between Democratic and Republican administrations when it comes to growing the economy. Over the past 75 years, Democrats have been much more successful in increasing the Gross Domestic Product and wages, and reducing the rate of unemployment, according to the Economic Policy Institute and many other analysts. 

And these differences are not at all trivial. The New York Times reported in February 2021: “Since 1933, the economy has grown at an annual average rate of 4.6% under Democratic presidents and 2.4% under Republicans. The average income of Americans would be more than double its current level if the economy had somehow grown at the Democratic rate for all of the past nine decades.” 

While it is true that presidential administrations are not always able to control the economy as much as they would wish, and that both bad and good policies sometimes take years to have noticeable effects, the differences described above are just too significant to be dismissed. Democratic administrations have produced much better economic outcomes, and have done so for decades. 

So, if you are among those legions of Americans who think that Republicans are better economic stewards, please rethink your views. And if you hear someone make such a claim, please correct them politely but firmly. 

 Editor’s note: Arnold “Skip” Oliver is professor emeritus of political science at Heidelberg University in Tiffin, Ohio. He can be reached at soliver@heidelberg.edu. Reader reactions, pro or con, are welcomed at AzOpinions@iniusa.org.