By Mark Carlisle
Twitter: @mwcarlisle

County public health data reported 422 new coronavirus cases and five new deaths Tuesday.

Tuesdays new case numbers resulted in the first dip in the county’s seven-day daily average of cases since Sunday, Oct. 4. County case numbers have been undergoing their biggest jump in months, with the seven-day daily average increasing from 188 on Sept. 26 to 459 Monday. That average ticked down to 448 Tuesday. The drop could be the first sign of a leveling off of the rise in recent weeks, however the daily average has dipped at the start of the last two weeks and then continued to rise the rest of the week. Mondays often have lower case numbers than the rest of the week due to a trend of hospitals logging less data over the weekend, which contributes to a dip in the seven-day daily average at the start of the week.

The county’s virus death numbers have been trending in the opposite direction of its case numbers in recent weeks. Tuesday marked the fifth straight day the county’s seven-day daily average was at six deaths, down from an average of 18 deaths a day on Sept. 23. New virus cases and virus deaths often trend in different directions because deaths are a lagging indicator. Deaths do not reflect the new case numbers recorded on the same day but usually better reflect the new case numbers from two or three weeks ago.

COVD-19 cases peaked in the county in late June and early July, according to county public health data, reaching 3,825 cases in a day on June 29. While today’s numbers still pale in comparison to that surge, the county is experiencing its largest increase in cases since the surge. The county’s seven-day daily average of new cases was 195 on Friday, Sept. 11 and increased to 370 by Tuesday, Oct. 6, the most recent day of complete data. That trend is likely only to worsen when more days of data become complete as preliminary case numbers reported in local days have averaged higher than 370 cases a day.

The county’s surge in coronavirus-related deaths has lagged a couple weeks after the surge in cases, as is typical with COVID-19 reporting. The county’s worst single-day death total was 69 on July 16. Daily death totals have recently declined to the level they were at before the county’s surge. In the most recent day of complete data, Saturday, Sept. 26, the seven-day daily average was seven deaths a day. The seven-day death average has remained below 10 for 23 days, the first time since early June.

Mark Carlisle
Associate Editor | Phoenix
@mwcarlisle

mcarlisle@iniusa.org

Meet Mark

Mark Carlisle joined Independent Newsmedia, Inc., USA, in 2017, covering Glendale. He has since moved to the Daily Independent team, primarily covering the city of Phoenix along with other topics affecting the Valley at-large.

Community: Mark enjoys taking his young son to BabyTime at the Phoenix Public Library, to the OdySea Aquarium and to various sporting events around the Valley.

Education: Chapman University with a BA in English Journalism and one in Screenwriting.

Random Fact: Mark worked at a tuxedo shop in college. Just don’t ask him to tie a bowtie.

 

Hobbies: Spending time with his wife, son and dog, watching sports and TV shows, listening to audiobooks and occasionally writing fiction or designing a board game.