By Brent Ruffner
Mail | Twitter: @AzNewsmedia

The Arizona governor’s race is taking shape as nine candidates from the two major political parties have filed petitions and are ready to wage battle heading into primary season.

For 2022, there are six candidates on the Republican side: former Fox 10 news anchor Kari Lake; former Arizona Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson; former U.S. Rep. Matt Salmon; businessman Steve Gaynor, who ran for secretary of state in 2018; businessman Scott Neely; and businesswoman Paola Tulliani-Zen.

Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, former Nogales Mayor Marco Lopez and Aaron Lieberman, a former state representative are candidates on the Democratic side.

With current Gov. Doug Ducey term limited, it opens up the potential on both sides of the aisle for candidates to throw their hat into the ring to claim the state’s top elected office for the first time in eight years. The key, according to local political consultants, will be campaign funding and polling numbers

Lorna Romero Ferguson, a Republican political consultant at Elevate Strategies, said the number of gubernatorial candidates to stay in the race will depend on if they can compete with others on funding as well as making sure polling numbers don’t dip too low.

The primary election in Arizona is Aug. 2. The general election is Nov. 8 of this year.

The economy, public safety and border security are among the hot topics Romero Ferguson expects to be discussed by the Republicans, she said.

“Anytime you open up a statewide seat, you see a number of people throw their hat in,” Romero Ferguson said.

Hobbs and Taylor Robson have plenty of funding behind them to help garner support on their respective sides, Romero Ferguson said.

Fundraising is a way for a candidate to set themselves apart from the field. Low fundraising amounts indicate low support, she said.

“It’s a large field,” Romero Ferguson said. “The question now is how long does that field stay large?”

State Sen. Rebecca Rios, Democratic minority leader, said drought and education should be two hot topics discussed from Democrats. She is currently running for Justice of the Peace in south Phoenix.

Rios said education in the state has been underfunded for decades and it’s a “critical” issue that likely will come up during the election cycle.

As far as Republican issues, Rios said she expects voter fraud and immigration to be hot-button issues.

“Republicans are going to pivot to what they always pivot to, which is illegal immigration as a way to fire up their base,” Rios said.

Marcus Dell’Artino, a Phoenix-based political consultant with First Strategic, said he believes Democrats will focus on Republican efforts to give continued tax cuts at the expense of state programs like education and to fire up their base with talk about abortion.

Ducey last week signed a bill that would restrict abortion in the state after 15 weeks. It is modeled after similar legislation in Mississippi, which has a case before the U.S. Supreme Court seeking to at worst lower that limit from about 20 weeks to at best overthrow the Roe v. Wade decision and refer abortion back as a state issue.

“I don’t think anyone is even watching that right now,” Dell’Artino said.

He said education and health care are two other issues Democrats will discuss in the race. He said he expects Lake, Taylor Robson and Salmon to be front-runners for the Republicans, while Gaynor might be the odd man out, he said.

Key factors of campaign funding and polling numbers should help decide the outcome of the race, Dell’Artino said.

“Polling shows whether you are picking up voters and money shows how long you will last,” Dell’Artino said.

Polling early in the race may not tell much, however. The current averages, according to poll aggregator RealClearPolitics.com, shows a tight race on the Republican side with Lake leading Salmon by a few percentage points, and Hobbs with a substantial lead on the Democratic side.

Brent Ruffner
Lead News Reporter | Phoenix
@AzNewsmedia

BRuffner@iniusa.org

Meet Brent

Brent Ruffner joined Independent Newsmedia, Inc., USA, in 2021 where he writes about developments at TSMC and Maricopa County issues, including election topics.

He's written about stories that range from accusations that a Mesa monkey breeding facility is unsafe to what to do if you encounter a rattlesnake in the desert.

Community:  He is a supporter of the American Cancer Society.

 Education: Bachelor's degree in Journalism and Mass Communication, Arizona State University, May 2007.

Random Fact: He met former San Francisco Giants outfielder Willie Mays at a Phoenix Firebird game after winning a contest for an autographed baseball. 

Hobbies: Hiking in the woods and collecting sports memorabilia.