Colleges step up as Arizona braces for nursing shortfall

By Stacy Mantle
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The U.S. is confronting a critical shortage of registered nurses, with projections indicating a national deficit ranging from 200,000 to 450,000 RNs in 2025, depending on care delivery models and workforce trends.

In February 2024, the National Center for Health Workforce Analysis predicted Arizona would face a shortfall of 28,100 registered nurses by 2025 — the largest gap in the nation.

As an aging population increases demand and burnout pushes seasoned professionals out of the field, colleges across the state are rethinking how they educate, support and deploy the next wave of nurses.

At Grand Canyon University, the Accelerated Bachelor of Science in Nursing program is one such response. This 16-month hybrid program is geared toward students who hold a degree in another field and want to transition into health care.

“We’re seeing students from all walks of life — single parents, veterans, career changers — who want to serve in health care but can’t spend four more years in school,” said Dr. Lisa Smith, dean of GCU’s College of Nursing and Health Care Professions. “Arizona’s response has to be scalable, flexible and fast — without cutting corners.”

Arizona’s nursing shortage

In Arizona, where the average nurse is over 50 years old, the state is bracing for a steep increase in demand for health care workers. The Arizona Department of Health Services projects a 23% rise in demand for registered nurses by 2030.

The national picture is also grim with 40% of nurses saying they plan to leave or retire during the next five years, according to the 2024 National Nursing Workforce Survey. This could result in a shortage of over 1.6 million nurses around the country.

Besides retirement, the top five reasons that nurses cite for leaving the profession include stress and burnout, workload, understaffing, inadequate salary and workplace violence. As the pandemic accelerated early retirements and overall burnout, enrollment in nursing schools has struggled to keep pace. 

"Traditional nursing programs often turn away qualified applicants due to capacity limits," according to the American Association of Colleges of Nursing. "In the 2023-2024 academic year, U.S. nursing schools turned away 65,766 qualified applications from baccalaureate and graduate nursing programs. The primary reasons cited include an insufficient number of faculty, limited clinical sites, inadequate classroom space and budget constraints."

Meeting the moment

As a result, many new programs have popped up in tech colleges and universities. The majority of the programs blend online coursework with in-person clinicals to accommodate working adults and students in underserved regions.

“We’re seeing more schools adopt simulation labs, evening clinicals and regional site expansions,” said Angela Bergs, a recent GCU graduate now working at Mayo Clinic. “(These) programs that understand students have jobs, kids and bills — those are the ones making a difference.”

In addition to GCU’s growing ABSN network, community colleges like Maricopa Community Colleges have added licensed practical nursing bridge programs and certificate tracks to quickly upskill existing health care workers. Arizona State University and the University of Arizona also are expanding nursing pathways, including RN-to-BSN and pre-licensure tracks, with a focus on rural outreach and partnerships with local hospitals to provide hands-on training.

"The field of nursing is so advantageous because it provides job security, a competitive starting income with only four years of school, and opportunities for career advancement," said Taylor Martin, a graduate of Grand Canyon University. "It offers a variety of jobs that always have positions available including inpatient nursing, travel nursing, school nursing, forensic nursing, nursing educators, etc. Ranging from three 12-hour shifts to part time only working 20 hours a week, this field is ideal for catering toward each individual need upon graduation."

Quality at scale

In 2024, Arizona ramped up its investment in the nursing workforce with a multipronged funding effort: $75 million over three years through the 1803 Arizona Nurses Grant, $25 million annually from the Arizona Health Care Cost Containment System and a $200,000 contribution from AZ Blue in Action.

Together, these funds are designed to combat the state’s nursing shortage by boosting the number of qualified professionals and expanding access to nursing education statewide.

Despite rapid expansion, producing quality nurses remains the primary focus.

“The ASBN closely monitors programs for first-time nursing programs and requires that National Council Licensure Examination pass rates are 80% or better,” Smith said. “Programs that fall below 80% are flagged for review. GCU’s ABSN graduates, for example, posted a 97.71% pass rate in early 2025 — well above the national average of 88.37%.”

While the state has invested in health care workforce development, advocates say more support is needed to meet growing demand.

“We need sustainable funding for clinical site partnerships, tuition assistance and faculty hiring,” Smith said. “Arizona can’t solve the nursing shortage with goodwill alone.”

Looking forward

As Arizona works to close its nursing gap, education leaders are also turning attention to another urgent need in healthcare — behavioral health. The demand for trained professionals in mental health and substance abuse treatment is climbing rapidly, and local colleges are stepping up to meet it.

“Our communities continue to see a growing demand for behavioral health professionals,” said Dr. Steven R. Gonzales, chancellor of Maricopa Community Colleges. “SMCC’s bachelors in behavioral sciences program prepares students to work one-on-one with individuals in purpose-driven roles like counseling. The LACT licensure adds another layer, especially for graduates looking to provide support to those dealing with substance abuse disorders.”

With nurse demand continuing to outpace supply, colleges are expanding beyond nursing. Some now offer short-term certificate programs in related fields such as health technicians, public health and administration — most of which prepare students for immediate workforce entry.

“Students have an opportunity to participate in externship programs during the final months of the program,” said Angela Bergs, a recent grad of GCU’s Sun City ABSN site. “This allows for not only a consistent clinical experience on the same assigned unit, but is in essence, a pseudo working job interview. There were several students in my cohort who had job offers before graduating. I have since relocated to Minnesota and currently work for Mayo Clinic.”

If Arizona can scale these new accelerated nursing models statewide, educators say the state could become a blueprint for other regions grappling with similar shortages.

“At times, this program is stressful and you will feel overwhelmed,” said Bergs. “But those who do complete the program will come out on the other side not only with the education and credentials to join this noble profession, but will also have the skill and confidence to do it well.”

Editor’s note: A grant from the Arizona Local News Foundation made this story possible. The foundation awarded 15 newsrooms to pay for solutions-focused education reporters for two years. Please send your comments to AzOpinions@iniusa.org. We are committed to publishing a wide variety of reader opinions, as long as they meet our Civility Guidelines.