By Matt Roy, Jason Stone and Philip Haldiman, Independent Newsmedia

While lawmakers wrangle over a citizenship question White House officials want included in the coming census, local leaders are hoping for an accurate count in 2020.

What’s at stake for Arizona and its municipalities, according to multiple media reports, is the largest potential count disparity in the U.S., with an estimated 4.9% under-count predicted should the citizenship question stand.

That disparity could account for the disenfranchisement of more than 362,000 Arizona residents, according to a Washington Post analysis published this week following a Harvard study released earlier this spring.

But what may seem to many mainly a national debate encompassing contentious issues, closer to home an accurate census is crucial to many of the Valley’s fast-growing cities.

“I think it’s extremely important that Surprise gets an accurate count,” said Surprise Mayor Skip Hall. “And I agree it’s very important for the state of Arizona also. It could add a legislative district to the state, so we’d have more representation in Washington.”

He said beyond representation, an accurate count will ensure his community gets its fair share of state and federal funding.

“A big part of our budget relies on population distribution from state revenue … since we’re the 10th largest city in Arizona and our growth has been estimated at close to 20,000 in the last 10 years,” Mr. Hall added.

While the number of rooftops has skyrocketed since the 2000 census — which counted only a little more than 30,000 residents in Surprise — city officials estimate that number could reach beyond 130,000 in the next count.

But as rooftops have increased and added to revenue derived from property taxes, business have not yet arrived to serve the community. As residents leave town to work and spend their money, municipal income can’t keep pace with the demand for services, the mayor said.

“There’s a lot of services we need to be aware of, from police and fire to parks and roads, all the things that are impacted by that increase in population,” Mr. Hall said. “We need to ensure that financially we get the help from the state and the federal government to accomplish those services for our residents, including the new ones.”

Surprise spokeswoman Diane Arthur said each Surprise resident counted accounts for about $1,979 per person in federal funding every year. That money goes to public safety, transportation, medical facilities and education.

It’s especially crucial for a city like Surprise, which grows so fast it relies on federal funding to help build infrastructure to keep up with the growth.

The population count also determines redistricting in the state and helps guide city planners about how to grow the city with the demographic information it provides, Ms. Arthur said.

Surprise are already taking steps to ensure an accurate count next year. To that end, city officials have established the Complete Count Committee, as was reported in the Surprise Today weekly newspaper in April.

“We are considering all available communications outlets and methods to ensure the importance of the Census is conveyed to the community and that every resident is reached,” said Ms. Arthur, who is leading the committee along with Assistant Community Development Director Lloyd Abrams and Marketing and Communications Manager Virginia Mungovan.

The committee’s job is to explain to residents the changes to the next census and why it’s crucial for everybody to respond.

Surprise’s estimated 134,000 residents can expect some changes when it comes to the Census count, which officially begins April 1, 2020.

For starters, it’s the first time it will be conducted exclusively online and by phone. Door-to-door visits will only affect people who didn’t respond to mail or phone requests to fill out the form.

Ms. Arthur said reaching Surprise’s non-English speakers, which are estimated to comprise 8% to 9% of the population, according to 2017 estimates, will be a focus of the committee’s work.

Peoria plans

Peoria’s growth may have slowed down, but the city remains one of the fastest growing in the state, according to fresh data provided by the United States Census Bureau.

Peoria’s population increased by 4,067 people in 2018, a 2.4% increase from 2017 and a 11.2% jump from 2010, giving it the 18th highest year-over-year increase in Arizona.

The average population percentage growth among Arizona’s 92 cities and towns was 1.52% over the year.

Peoria’s population is 172,259, according to the latest report.

The city’s growth is a component of the influx of people in the last decade who have moved to Maricopa County, which has led the country for three years in a row, and maintains its rank as the fourth most populous county in the United States, with a population of about 4.4 million.

The most recent numbers foreshadow next year’s census and state-shared revenue makes up about 30% of Peoria’s General Fund revenues, according to the city’s Finance and Budget Department.

To ensure an accurate count, Peoria will be using a committee comprised of a cross-section of the community including representatives from the faith-based community, businesses, school district, community leaders, HOAs, nonprofits and others.

Planning Director Chris Jacques said committee members will serve as ambassadors and advisors assisting the city and Census Bureau in effectively getting the word out to the community, with specific attention to traditionally hard-to-count areas of the population. Activities and outreach events will be ramping up over the next year leading through Census Day 2020.

Mr. Jacques said if a city is under-counted, it will get less than its fair share.

“It is critically important that all Peoria citizens be counted,” Mr. Jacques said.

Peoria has seen explosive growth over the last decade, particularly north of Bell Road up to Lake Pleasant where annexations from Maricopa County in the late 1980s and early 1990s have resulted in a housing boom that is now starting to see increased commercial development.

Half the population is located south of Bell Road and half is located north of Bell Road where the majority of the city’s growth is expected in the coming years.

Mr. Jacques said Peoria has been among the top tier of Valley cities in terms of single-family residential permits over the last few years with about 90% of them issued in two growth areas: the Vistancia area and the Lake Pleasant Parkway/Happy Valley area.

“With improved access — Loop 303 and widened Happy Valley — these areas are within the commute shed of the Deer Valley/Norterra job center along the I-17 corridor,” he said. “Moreover, with quality schools, stable governance and access to open space and recreation, this area continues to attract new residents.”

A drawback to growth?

But cities face both opportunities and challenges from rapid population growth, said Ken Strobeck, executive director of the Arizona League of Cities and Towns.

“It’s a mixed blessing. It’s great to have that many people moving here and it shows the vitality of this area,” Mr. Strobeck said. “But it’s also a challenge in meeting the services that those new residents demand.”

The Peoria Unified School District has experienced difficulty keeping up with the growth, redistricting in 2017 to adjust for school overcrowding. Capacity remains an issue as the district saw two failed bonds — which would have funded new schools — in the last four years. The majority of funds for new schools come from the state or voter approved bonds.

Mr. Strobeck said adding new households brings some new revenue, but with more residents, cities see heavier burdens on their facilities and services. Streets, water supply, wastewater treatment, public services and first responders are all areas impacted by a larger population.

“I think the obvious challenge is finding housing for all those folks that are moving in and keeping it in the affordable range, as well as the impact that all the additional population has on infrastructure,” Mr. Strobeck said.

Although cities are funded based on the decade Census count, school districts are funded largely through the state budget process.