PHOENIX – At Turning Point USA’s “America: Love It or Leave It” tour stop at Grand Canyon University, CEO Erika Kirk called out one particular group: those who don’t plan to vote in the upcoming midterm elections. 

“If you sit out an election because you're disappointed with Republicans, you don't get an empty government for two years,” said Kirk, who became head of the Phoenix-based conservative group after the murder of her husband Charlie Kirk last year. “You don’t get to press pause while conservatives are figuring it out and reorganizing themselves, and come back when they have the perfect party or the perfect candidate. That’s not how this works.”

Headlined by Kirk with support from conservative activists Brandon Tatum and Shane Winnings on Oct. 1, the speeches reflected a growing worry among conservatives that previous election gains with young voters might be deteriorating enough to cost them in November.

“If you think as a Christian, as a believer, as a young person, that you should not get involved in elections, (that) you should not vote, shame on you,” said Tatum, a conservative political commentator and former Tucson police officer.

In 2024, support for Donald Trump’s bid to return to the White House notably increased among younger voters compared to the 2020 race. 

Pew Research found former Vice President Kamala Harris won voters 18 to 29 years old by a margin of 19% in 2024, down from Joe Biden’s 26% margin with the group four years earlier. Among 18 to 29 year old men in particular the shift was even more pronounced: While Biden won that group in 2020 by a margin of 10%, they swung to Trump in 2024 by a 1% margin.

An attendee sits in the crowd wearing a white hat with red embroidered text “America The Beautiful” while an American flag is draped around their back at Turning Point USA’s “America: Love It or Leave It” tour at the Grand Canyon University Antelope Gym on Oct. 1, 2026.

Photo by Gisela Contreras/Cronkite News

Almost two years later, the political environment feels much different. Polling shows signs that younger voters are trending toward Democrats.

The latest New York Times and Siena College poll found that of the polled voters who were 18 to 29 years old, when asked if they favored a Democrat or Republican for Congress in their district, 57% leaned toward Democrats, while 31% leaned toward Republicans.

“This is not my line but somebody said, ‘This isn’t a blue wave election, it’s a red undercurrent. It’s a red undertow’ because Trump is such a drag on Republicans,” said Chuck Coughlin, a Republican consultant from Arizona. Still, he said, “Republicans should win in Arizona. There’s 360,000 more (registered) Republicans than there are Democrats.”

According to Arizona Secretary of State voter registration statistics from July, there are roughly 313,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats.

Coughlin, the CEO and founder of the public affairs firm HighGround, said he didn’t attend the Grand Canyon University event but now sees the GOP as a “Turning Point party.”

“It has become a very extremist place and largely incapable of electing successful candidates in Maricopa County and for statewide office,” Coughlin said. “The Republicans are on a pretty serious losing streak here and I think it’s going to be amplified in this next election.”

At the tour stop, it was notable that speakers acknowledged a sense of frustration with Republican elected officials, even while speaking to an audience of mostly conservatives. 

During a question and answer segment with Tatum and Winnings, a student from Alaska asked: “Why should we continue to vote conservative and vote Republican if we're just going to get the same result as if we voted Democrat economically?” 

Tatum, while acknowledging that prices have recently risen, asked the student to pause judgment on the economy until the end of Trump’s term. 

“I do believe that Trump will get to a point where we get these prices down,” Tatum told the crowd, a majority of whom wore white “America The Beautiful” hats that were given out for free. “Now, (if) at the end of his term, it doesn't come down, or he doesn't have a solution for the problem, then we can get upset with him and say that he failed at his job.” 

Brandon Tatum speaks at Turning Point USA’s “America: Love It or Leave It” tour at the Grand Canyon University Antelope Gym on Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026.

Photo by Gisela Contreras/Cronkite News

A majority of the discourse focused on criticizing the left, rather than promoting Republicans. 

Kirk told the crowd to trust Democrats when they detail their plans.

“When the left tells you what they intend to do with their power, believe them,” Kirk said during her 17-minute speech. “Look (at) what their candidates campaign on and what their elected officials will try to push: radical Islam, boys in girls' locker rooms, open borders (and) criminals running around crazy.”

Tatum called out “Democrat(ic) socialists screaming that they want to abolish prisons.”

“These people are out of their minds,” Tatum said. “But now, some of them will get elected into office (and) they have the most nonsensical thought process that I’ve ever seen in my life.”

Winnings, who is chairman and CEO of the male-focused Christian organization Promise Keepers, touched on his fears of progressivism.

“Progressivism discounts, dismisses and even demonizes the American dream. It is…a plague to the nation,” Winnings said. “The progressives would tell you that we must keep moving forward. Even if forward is killing us at an alarming rate, progressives would sell you the lie that freedom and liberty are right around the corner.”

Despite also aligning with the Republican party, Coughlin said the GOP will only find success if it prioritizes its own agenda.

“The axiom I grew up believing, and I still believe is true today, (is) if you’re talking about your opponent all the time, you’re losing,” Coughlin said. “You need to build an aspirational nature around your message to attract voters to support you, and (the) vilification of your opponents is not an aspirational message.”

Students who attended the event said they were there out of curiosity, and admiration for Kirk.

“I don't know what's gonna happen today,” said freshman Findlay Prior. “It's like the unknown (that) is what's intriguing.”

“I think it's cool how strong Erika Kirk has been. I just want to see her, hear her speak,” said Ellie Koop, a sophomore. 

Each student Cronkite News talked to said they plan to vote in November.

This article first appeared on Cronkite News and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.