Report: Vacant Queen Creek land can meet future housing needs

With Queen Creek’s population expected to grow by 19,000 over the next five years, a new report finds that there is enough vacant land to meet single-family and multifamily housing needs.

The report will be presented to the Queen Creek Town Council at its Jan. 15 meeting.

Last year, the Arizona Legislature passed a bill requiring all municipalities with more than 30,000 residents to publish a housing needs assessment by Jan. 1, and every five years after that.

According to the statute, municipalities must also prepare an annual “plan that specifies how the municipality intends to satisfy the identified need for additional housing units within the municipality” and submit it to the Arizona Department of Housing.

The town’s assessment will be presented to the council for discussion during its regular meeting starting at 6:30 p.m., Wednesday in the Community Chambers, 20727 E. Civic Parkway.

The report includes the town’s projected population and job growth from 2025 to 2030, and the total amount of available residentially zoned land for single-family and multifamily housing.

The report also includes the total need for additional residential housing units for rent and for sale in Queen Creek to meet any shortfalls in housing the existing population and existing workforce, population and job growth projections, and housing needs across various income levels.

“The report determines that the town has adequate vacant land zoned for residential uses to meet the projected housing need for single-family and multifamily units based on the population and job projections for the 2025-30 period,” a council staff report stated.

According to the assessment, the town’s population is expected to grow by 21.3%, or 19,000, from 89,000 this year to 108,000 in 2030.

The report also looks at household sizes to see if homes are being built to suit needs. While the household size in Queen Creek averaged close to 3.1 people in 2023 — larger than the Maricopa County average of 2.6 people — the town’s average household size dropped from 3.6 people in 2010.

In terms of housing inventory, about 36% of households in Queen Creek are made up of four or more people while 91% of housing units have three or more bedrooms. In addition, 96% of the housing stock is made up of single-family homes.

“More significantly, 64% of households are three or fewer persons but only 9% of the housing units have two or fewer bedrooms, and only 4% of the units are smaller multifamily homes,” the report found. “This imbalance suggests a need for more smaller multifamily units to match the number and percentage of smaller households.”

According to the report, if the average household size in Queen Creek stays at 3.1 people by 2030, the town would need 6,129 units to accommodate the projected growth of 19,000 residents. If the average household size drops to 2.8, there will be a need for 6,786 units.

Finally, if household size in Queen Creek becomes comparable to that of Maricopa County by 2030 — 2.5 — the town will need 7,600 units.

The report found that in recent years, average household sizes in the town have been dropping, so “it may be more realistic to use a smaller average household size for growth projection purposes.”

Based on income, housing needs are split into three categories: households earning less than 80% of the average median income and accommodated by multifamily housing, households earning more than 120% of the average and accommodated by single-family housing and households in the 80%–120% range with half projected to be accommodated with single-family and half by multifamily or mixed-use housing.

The report looks at two income scenarios — distribution based on household incomes and the distribution of employment sector salaries.

The first scenario recommends a 31%, or 2,104, multifamily units to 69%, or 4,682, single-family units split. The second scenario recommends a 27%, or 1,866, multifamily units to 73%, or 4,920, single-family units split.

In assessing the needs of future housing for Queen Creek, the report assumed a:

• population growth of 19,000
• household size of 2.8
• household unit type split of 73% single family and 27% multifamily
• land development yield of 80% of the maximum capacity for multifamily and mixed-use zones, and 90% of the maximum capacity of single-family zones

“The town has the adequately zoned vacant land to meet the 2025 to 2030 projected housing need with a surplus of 18,811 units. There is a significant surplus of 14,524 single family units and a surplus of 4,287 multifamily units. The surplus of both single and multifamily units indicates that the town has adequate capacity for the 2025 to 2030 period and beyond,” the report found.

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