Paradise Valley Unified School District expects enrollment to continue declining across elementary, middle and high school grades over much of the next decade, according to projections approved by the district's governing board Thursday.
District documents characterize PVSchools as a "non growing district" and project declines across all three grade configurations. Elementary enrollment is projected to fall from 11,689 students in fiscal year 2027 to 10,286 in fiscal year 2032 before beginning to stabilize.
The decline is projected to be more pronounced in the upper grades.
Enrollment in grades 7-8 is projected to fall from 3,775 students in fiscal year 2027 to 2,859 by fiscal year 2033, a decline of about 24%. High school enrollment is projected to drop from 8,329 students to 6,266 by fiscal year 2036, a decline of nearly 25%.
The projections come as PVSchools continues to navigate declining enrollment while attracting significant numbers of students through open enrollment.
The district reported 882 students entering PVSchools from Deer Valley Unified School District this school year, up from 844 last year. Another 651 students come from Cave Creek Unified School District, compared with 595 last year, while 528 come from Scottsdale Unified School District, down from 608. Hundreds more come from Washington Elementary, Glendale Union and other neighboring districts.
PVSchools uses demographic reports examining cohort survival, housing changes, occupied housing and historical enrollment trends to develop its projections.
The capital plan does not identify a need for additional schools. Instead, it lists PVSchools as a non-growing district and identifies only one locally funded major construction project: the tear-down and rebuild of Indian Bend Elementary School, which is being funded through district bond money and is scheduled for completion in January 2027.
Under Arizona law, school districts annually update capital plans that include enrollment projections and identify whether additional schools or classroom space will be needed. The state reviews those projections when determining eligibility for money from the New School Facilities Fund.
At Thursday's meeting, Assistant Superintendent for Business Operations Jill Barragan told the board the capital plan itself is an annual requirement.
"We have shared with you tonight the School Facilities Oversight Board capital plan, which you have received before," Barragan said. "That always comes before the board annually."
What is different this year, she said, is a more detailed preventative maintenance submission required by the state's School Facilities Division.
"We have always done a preventative maintenance plan," Barragan said. "But they wanted to see a narrative this year, and that is a new requirement."
The district's plan covers preventative maintenance across its 53 facilities, which encompass more than 5 million square feet and have an average age of 30 years. PVSchools said it uses scheduled inspections, work-order tracking and maintenance of HVAC, roofing, electrical, plumbing and other systems in an effort to reduce emergency repairs and extend the life of district facilities.
Preventative maintenance can also affect a district's access to state facilities funding. Arizona law requires a district to submit a preventative maintenance plan to qualify for Building Renewal Grant Fund money, and districts that have performed routine preventative maintenance receive priority in the grant process.
The district's capital plan does not indicate whether the projected enrollment declines could eventually affect staffing, school boundaries, programs or the number of campuses PVSchools operates.
Board members did not discuss the enrollment projections or ask Barragan questions before approving the plans unanimously.
Editor’s note: A grant from the Arizona Local News Foundation made this story possible. The foundation awarded 15 newsrooms to pay for solutions-focused education reporters for two years. Please submit comments at yourvalley.net/letters or email them to AzOpinions@iniusa.org. We are committed to publishing a wide variety of reader opinions, as long as they meet our Civility Guidelines.
Meet Stacy Stacy Mantle is joining the team at Independent Newsmedia, Inc. as an Education Solutions journalist, thanks to a grant from the Arizona Community Collaborative. She has a long history in education that ranges from teaching junior high and middle school to developing curriculum and standards-based assessments.
Community: A longtime advocate for animal welfare, Stacy is deeply involved in rescue efforts and volunteers with several nonprofit organizations.
Random Fact: Once upon a time, she shared her home with a pet coyote and two wolf hybrids. The experiences were wild enough to become the subject of her first book!
Education: She holds a BA in English with a minor in Political Science, a Post-baccalaureate in Secondary Education, and an MBA with a emphasis on Marketing.
Hobbies: In her spare time, Stacy writes fast-paced urban fantasy novels, crafts small-batch artisan soap, and is always up for hiking or off-roading through the Arizona wilderness with her husband of 23 years.
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