PHOENIX – Anyone betting on Rep. Andy Biggs to become Arizona’s next governor is in for a large payday, as traders wagering on the race appear convinced the Gilbert Republican will lose.

As of Sept. 29, a “yes” contract on a Republican victory in the governor’s race cost just 13 cents on the prediction market Kalshi. At that price, someone who bet $13 on Biggs could collect up to $100 if he wins — an $87 profit before fees.

Five weeks out from Election Day, traders on both Kalshi and Polymarket were forecasting an 87% probability that Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs would secure a second term.

Recent polling points in the same direction, but with far less certainty. Five of the most recent public surveys reviewed by Cronkite News all found Hobbs ahead of Biggs, though her lead ranged from 15 percentage points to a statistical tie. 

Kalshi prediction market odds show Andy Biggs with a 12% chance of winning the Arizona governor’s race as of Oct. 1, 2026.

Screenshot via Kalshi

Four years ago, Hobbs defeated GOP nominee Kari Lake by 17,117 votes – less than 1 percentage point. 

Experts interviewed by Cronkite News said the gap between polling and prediction market odds is not as contradictory as it may appear. Polls measure how voters say they will vote at a particular moment in time, while prediction markets like Kalshi measure what traders think is the most likely outcome.

“The Hobbs and Biggs numbers in Kalshi are predicting the probability of winning, not anything to do with the vote shares,” said Thomas Rietz, a University of Iowa finance professor who studies prediction markets.

That means when it comes to betting on elections, a one-vote victory has the same payout as a landslide.

The five polls reviewed by Cronkite News all placed Hobbs ahead of Biggs, the results are not directly comparable and the polls are slightly dated. None were conducted after Aug. 19, and since then the Biggs campaign has announced a $1.75 million advertising buy coordinated with the Arizona Republican Party.

“Polling is a measurement of current sentiment,” said Arizona pollster Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights. “Polls in midterms are only as good as your turnout model, because it’s all about who shows up.”

A survey Noble conducted Aug. 10 to 13 put Hobbs ahead 13 points among likely voters, with 12% undecided. 

At HighGround, another Arizona pollster, a mid-August survey showed Hobbs with a 15 percentage point lead.

HighGround’s senior vice president of research and strategy, Paul Bentz, compared polling with the point spread in a sporting event and Kalshi as the moneyline.

“That’s just who’s going to win and who’s going to lose,” he said. “The spread can be very different from the moneyline.”

As Election Day nears, Bentz said he expects Republicans to consolidate behind Biggs and the margin to shrink. However, when asked whether Biggs could come back from his current position and win, he said the candidate would “need a miracle.”

Noble also expects the race to narrow by Election Day. “They’ll bring it down into single digits, but will it be enough? That’s the question,” he said.

Hobbs entered the general election with a few advantages. 

Thom Reilly, co-director of Arizona State University’s Center for an Independent and Sustainable Democracy, said divided government has allowed the incumbent to present a more moderate record after working with a Republican-controlled Legislature. 

Biggs, meanwhile, remains closely associated with President Donald Trump, he said.

That distinction matters in Arizona, where voters unaffiliated with either party outnumber registered Democrats and are almost as numerous as registered Republicans. 

Still, the experts were divided over how much trust to place in Kalshi’s current odds.

“The evidence that we have on Kalshi’s performance in elections is pretty limited so far,” said Rietz, the University of Iowa professor. “The jury is still out on whether these are accurate.”

Hobbs’ campaign affirmed that uncertainty.

“This race will be close, and Gov. Hobbs isn't taking anything for granted,” said Michael Beyer, Hobbs’ campaign communications director, in a written statement to Cronkite News.

Biggs’ campaign did not respond to a request for comment.

Many campaigns are nevertheless paying attention to prediction market odds – especially those in downballot races where polling is sparse or nonexistent. 

Sebastian Matta, the Democratic nominee for Maricopa County Clerk of the Superior Court, said he knows “a campaign or two that use Kalshi as their actual odds,” though he declined to name them. Matta said he saw no problem with campaigns monitoring the market “as long as they’re not investing themselves.”

Betting on elections remains the subject of a legal fight in Arizona.

Attorney General Kris Mayes, a Democrat, filed a 20-count criminal complaint against Kalshi in March, calling it an “illegal gambling operation” and citing a state law that bans election wagers. A federal judge blocked enforcement as the case proceeds. Mayes has appealed that decision.

Kalshi says its contracts are federally regulated financial products, not gambling.

Early voting begins Oct. 7, giving Biggs little time to turn things around. Dartmouth College economics professor Eric Zitzewitz said assuming Hobbs has maintained at least a 6-7 point lead in the polls, the current Kalshi odds regarding the race appear to be accurate.

“It’s not impossible that Biggs will catch up,” Zitzewitz said, “but the odds seem roughly right to me.”

This article first appeared on Cronkite News and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.