Future of CFP: How would 12-team playoff look this season?
By RALPH D. RUSSO
Posted 12/5/22
The College Football Playoff is two years away from expanding, and those involved in growing the format from four to 12 teams have already said those first two seasons will be a test run. They are …
This story requires a subscription for $5.99/month.
Visitors to our website will be limited to five stories per month unless they opt to subscribe. The five stories do not include our exclusive content written by our journalists.
For $5.99, less than 20 cents a day, digital subscribers will receive unlimited access to YourValley.net, including exclusive content from our newsroom and access to our Daily Independent e-edition.
Our commitment to balanced, fair reporting and local coverage provides insight and perspective not found anywhere else.
Your financial commitment will help to preserve the kind of honest journalism produced by our reporters and editors. We trust you agree that independent journalism is an essential component of our democracy. Please click here to subscribe.
Click here to see your options for becoming a subscriber.
Register to comment
Click here create a free account for posting comments.
Note that free accounts do not include access to premium content on this site.
I am anchor
Future of CFP: How would 12-team playoff look this season?
Georgia wide receiver Kearis Jackson (10) stiff arms LSU safety Major Burns (28) first half of the Southeastern Conference championship NCAA college football game, Saturday, Dec. 3, 2022, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Brynn Anderson)
Posted
By RALPH D. RUSSO
The College Football Playoff is two years away from expanding, and those involved in growing the format from four to 12 teams have already said the first two seasons will be a test run.
They are committed to the basics of the format long-term: 12 teams, six conference champions and six at-large teams.
“Twelve, six, six is solid, solid, solid in the minds of the presidents and the commissioners,” CFP Executive Director Bill Hancock said Friday, when expansion, starting in 2024, was announced.
Hancock left the door wide open to reconsideration of where the quarterfinals are played for the 2026 season and beyond. It will be interesting to see if other tweaks are made.
Now, let's take this season's final selection committee rankings and apply the future format.
This is how a 12-team playoff would look. Remember, the top four conference champions get first round byes. So a team can be ranked in the top four, like TCU and Ohio State this season, and not get a pass to the second round. Teams 5-8 get homes games, but the conference champions do not get preferential treatment after the top four seeds are handed out.
No. 9 Kansas State (Big 12 champ) at No. 8 Tennessee (at-large) winner vs. No. 1 Georgia (SEC champ) at the Sugar Bowl.
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 TCU (at-large) winner vs. No. 4 Utah (Pac-12 champ) at the Fiesta Bowl.
No. 11 Penn State (at-large) at No. 6 Ohio State (at-large) winner vs. No. 3 Clemson (ACC champ) at the Orange Bowl
No. 10 USC (at-large) at No. 7 Alabama (at-large) winner vs. No. 2 Michigan (Big Ten champ) at the Rose Bowl.
First off, that looks pretty awesome.
These matchups will always be a bit of a crap shoot as far as quality is concerned, but that Tulane-TCU-Utah line looks incredibly watchable as does Penn State-Ohio State-Clemson.
Clearly, there are some potential issues here related to which teams get byes.
This was an unusual playoff field this year. Never before had two teams that didn’t win their conference make the field as TCU and Ohio State did.
In the committee's final rankings Clemson was seventh and Utah was eighth, but because they won their conferences they jumped ahead of the line to became the three and four seeds.
The commissioners who put this format together wanted to emphasize conference championships. There is merit to that idea, but seeing how that can play out, where the third and fourth ranked teams in the country get bumped into the first round will make some fans cringe. Especially, those who root for the teams getting bumped.
The potential ramifications extend to the quarterfinals.
By shuffling those rankings to defer to conference champions, it exposes top-seeded Georgia and No. 2 Michigan to Tennessee (ranked sixth) and Alabama (ranked fifth), respectively, in the next round.
If seedings matched the committee's rankings, Georgia's second round opponent in a 12-team playoff would be the Utah-Kansas State winner. Michigan's would play the Clemson-USC winner.
No reason to start fretting about these quirks now, but the 2026 season will get here soon enough and it's good to be prepared for the arguments to come.
___
Follow Ralph D. Russo at https://twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP and listen at http://www.appodcasts.com
___
AP college football: https://apnews.com/hub/college-football and https://twitter.com/ap_top25. Sign up for the AP’s college football newsletter: https://tinyurl.com/mrxhe6f2