By Howard Fischer
Twitter: @azcapmedia

PHOENIX — Gov. Doug Ducey is not going to order any businesses closed in three Arizona counties that, by his own standards, now have substantial transmission of COVID-19, with a press aide saying there’s no reason for that.

New data Thursday from the Department of Health Services shows Yavapai, Apache and Navajo counties all have two consecutive weeks where all three indicators of viral spread have gone into the “red zone.”

Under Mr. Ducey’s own orders, that should require shuttering all movie theaters, fitness centers, gyms and bars, even those that agree to operate like restaurants.

In fact, none of these were permitted to operate at all earlier this year until the risk of spread in all three categories was reduced to the “moderate” level. That includes the rate of cases per 100,000 residents, the percent of residents testing positive for the virus, and the number of patients showing up at hospitals with COVID-like symptoms.

Ducey press aide C.J. Karamargin does not dispute the sharp hike in COVID infections. And even Dr. Cara Christ, the state’s health chief, said Thursday the rate of infection in the entire state for the past week has reached 500 per 100,000.

“This far exceeds the benchmark for substantial transmission, which is far above the 100 per 100,000 people,” she said.

But Mr. Karamargin said the evidence shows the spike is coming not from businesses that the state can control but instead from things the state cannot, like family gatherings. And he said Mr. Ducey believes it makes no sense to close businesses because of rising infections, even if that is what is called for in his own standards.

It isn’t just the benchmarks set by Mr. Ducey and the health department that show a substantial risk of spread in Arizona.

A separate state-by-state analysis looks at what researchers call the “R-naught” number, essentially an indicator of how fast the virus is growing. Anything above 1.0 shows spread.

On Thursday, Arizona hit 1.22. That’s not only the highest in the nation but the highest for Arizona since the middle of May, before Mr. Ducey ordered many businesses to close their doors.

In some ways, the governor’s decision not to shut businesses as the standards require is no surprise. Mr. Ducey has publicly taken the position that, even in the face of rising cases, his focus is on economic health.

“Arizona’s open,” the governor said as recently as September when there were the first indications of a rise in infections.

“Arizona’s economy is open, Arizona’s education institutions are open, Arizona’s tourism institutions are open,” he said. “The expectation is they are going to remain open.”

While there are just three counties now officially at risk of substantial spread, others are at risk — and potentially just a week away from hitting the same levels.

The benchmarks established by the governor and his health chief set up a system designed to show the risk level based on two weeks’ worth of data. That is designed to keep an unusual spike from throwing a county into a different category.

But even using that standard, Yavapai, Apache and Navajo counties have more than 100 cases per 100,000 residents for at least two weeks.

In fact, the rate in Yavapai County now is pegged are 423 people per 100,000. It is 667 in Apache County and 418 in Navajo County.

All the numbers are at least a week old, with Dr. Christ warning Thursday that things are getting worse even as Arizona waits for the rollout of a vaccine.

The second test for substantial spread is when more than 10% of people tested show positive for the virus.

Here, too, all three counties have been in that range for two weeks, with the current figure of 20.7% for Yavapai and 16.5% for both Apache and Navajo counties.

The third standard is based on more than 10% of the people seeking medical care have a COVID-like illness. All three counties logged in at 13.8%.

“There’s no question about it, Arizona’s numbers are headed in the wrong direction,” said Mr. Karamargin. “And what we’re seeing in increased cases certainly are having an impact on communities across the state.”

But he said it’s not a simple matter of saying that having counties categorized as having substantial spread should automatically trigger business closures.

“Most of the spread we’re seeing cannot be traced to restaurants or small businesses,” Mr. Karamargin said.

“Most of this traces to small gatherings of family and friends like the Thanksgiving holiday, which was just two weeks ago,” he continued. And that, said Mr. Karamargin, is not a surprise.

“People have been dealing with this the past nine months and are starting to let their guard down,” he said.

“This is completely understandable,” Mr. Karamargin said. “Nine months is a very long time.”

He also said rules that govern how businesses operate during the pandemic remain in place, including requirements for masks and social distancing. Mr. Karamargin also said the state has a “two-strike” rule: Businesses found to have violated those standards twice are shut down automatically and cannot reopen without permission of the health department.

The issue of rising COVID cases and areas being classified as having substantial risk of spread is not confined to just those three counties.

Pima County, for example, currently has all three categories in the substantial range. But only the case rate and percent positivity have been above the threshold for two weeks; a second week of COVID-19 hospital visits will put it in the same category.

The situation is the same in Cochise County with two weeks of high cases and positive test results but just one week in the substantial range of that touchstone for hospital visits.

Other counties are a bit farther away from the designation, with just two out of three measurements — cases per 100,000 and test positivity — in the red zone in Maricopa and Pinal counties but hospital visits still in the moderate range.