By Josh Martinez
Twitter: @jmartinez064

Enrollment in Scottsdale Unified District is likely to go down over the next 10 years, officials from Applied Economics told the Governing Board as part of a 10-year demographics and enrollment analysis presentation.

The enrollment analysis presentation occurred in late November at Coronado High School, 7501 E. Virginia Ave. Despite the projected drop from 22,233 students this school year to a projected 20,390 in 2029-30, some board members saw a positive in that the projections were minimal over the next two years.

“It always seems like as districts, they just want growth, growth but we are a mature district, a mature city --- I don’t think the city’s population has grown much in the past 10 years either --- and that’s not a negative, is what I’m saying,” Board Vice President Allyson Beckham said.

“Actually, we can have confidence in what our numbers are going to be, what we can do with the funds we have and where we possibly need to go to get resources so I’m looking at it as very much a positive.”

The U.S. Census Bureau estimates Scottsdale’s population to have grown almost 38,000 from 2010-18 with Paradise Valley estimated to have grown almost 1,700 in that time. With the upcoming Census, the district will have a better idea of city population growth models and exactly how many school-age children live in the area.

A breakdown of data

Rick Brammer of Applied Economics gave an extensive overlook of enrollment trends, demographic characteristics, residential development impacts and enrollment projects. He acknowledged since students who come from out of district are from all over the Valley, it can be difficult to project enrollment.

His four conclusions, based on those categories, went as followed:

•  K-12 enrollment looks to decline over the next 10 years though how much specifically is based on the level of competition and subsequent changes in the net enrollment-population ratio;
•  Demographic trends don’t show a potential for an increased school-age population but some established areas are likely to stablize toward the end of the upcoming decade;
•  Housing construction looks to remain steady over the next decade but new housing looks to be multifamily homes not geared toward families with children; and
•  At least four elementary and middle schools as well as one high school, look to continue low enrollment.

The enrollment-population ratio is the difference between the school age population and the district’s K-12 enrollment. Mr. Brammer said while that ratio continues downward over the next 10 years, it is going down at a slower rate than the past 10 years.

In contrast, Mr. Brammer said charter schools in or near district boundaries have seen a 6,200 increase in population since the 2010-11 school year while the district has lost about 3,800 students in that same time. SUSD populations have declined slowly over the past five years with the district losing 138 students over the past year.

Since 2010-11, SUSD has seen a decline of 4,500 in-district students but saw an increase of 780 out-of-district students. This included a 270-student surge over the past year from out of the district.

As for schools, Mr. Brammer is projecting declines in both the Coronado and Desert Mountain high schools populations with Coronado projected to have a population of 699 in the 2029-30 school year and Desert Mountain sitting with a projected 1,528 that school year, This school year, Coronado had 902 students and Desert Mountain has 2,058.

These declining trends apply to the two schools’ learning communities as well, with Arcadia High School’s community also seeing a slight projected drop.

Mr. Brammer pointed to the newness of the Desert Mountain area as original owners of those houses are still living there as their kids grow older and move. He said he expects the declining trend to continue before new owners move in and potentially send the numbers up.

Urban development shapes enrollment

For the Coronado community, he said urban redevelopment is displacing the original owners with those who might not have children.

As for growth, Mr. Brammer expects Arcadia, Chaparral and Saguaro high schools to remain largely steady over the next decade.

For the rest of the schools, Mr. Brammer pointed out four schools (Echo Canyon, Anasazi, Laguna and Navajo) would likely have populations under 400 students while two more (Sequoya and Copper Ridge) would have less than 450.

Specifically, Copper Ridge is projected to drop from 641 to 449 students, continuing its trend of declining population. The other schools with projected low populations likely will remain stable over the next 10 years.

Interim Chief Financial Officer Jeff Gadd said the district plans to use these projections for long-term budget planning, especially since the M&O budget is formula-driven. Other potential effects Mr. Gadd pointed to were staffing, square footage of campuses and other projections the district needs.

With the projections in front of him, Superintendent Dr. John Kriekard said he likes to take those numbers as a challenge.

“I view this as it’s a nice, realistic shot,” he said. “As boardmember Beckham has said in terms of it’s not great changes one way or the other but it is a downward trend and that is a challenge. So our challenge is to continue day-by-day to do the best we can to educate the kids so that the reputation of the district attracts more kids.

“The more kids means more programs and so my motto has been that we need to continue to support the schools and invest in order to grow.”