Election watch 2026: Will Arizona vote Dem, GOP or MAGA in the midterms?

Robert Robb

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What are your thoughts on how Arizona will vote in the 2026 midterms and why?

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The New York Times recently ran a piece about how Arizona Democrats are crying in their beer over their prospects in 2026, when most statewide offices are on the ballot. I have a contrarian view, with an important reservation.

At this early stage, my sense is that the 2026 election is shaping up very much similar to the midterm elections of 2018 and 2022. Both were, in part, reflections of Trump fatigue, at least in Arizona.

In 2018, even though the economy was doing decently, Democrats picked up over 40 U.S. House seats. In Arizona, a Democrat, Kyrsten Sinema, won a U.S. Senate seat for the first time in three decades.

Arizona unusually has had a U.S. Senate seat on the ballot in four consecutive election cycles. Democrats have won all four.

In addition to winning the Arizona U.S. Senate election in 2022, Democrats won the three most important state offices: governor, secretary of state and attorney general. In all three races, a Trump-endorsed candidate won the GOP primary over more qualified and electable opponents. And the all-MAGA slate lost in the general election.

Trump is the only MAGA candidate to win a prominent statewide election in Arizona. And even in the two elections in which he carried Arizona, his margin was substantially less than was Mitt Romney’s in 2012. Arizona isn’t MAGA country.

It appears likely that Republicans will again field an all-MAGA ticket for the major state offices in 2026. Nationally, Trump fatigue is settling in even more quickly and extensively than it did in 2018. All of this points to a favorable environment for Arizona Democrats in the big races in 2026, with the usual caveats about this being way early and events can change prospects considerably. The current disarray in the state Democratic Party’s official apparatus isn’t anything competent candidate campaigns can’t overcome and compensate for. Pre-Trump, GOP candidates in Arizona had to do so periodically, and did so successfully.

Here is the reservation. The Joe Biden experience appears to have tarnished the Democratic brand in Arizona.

During the early Trump period, Democrats had narrowed their registration disadvantage. In 2014, an election that featured a Republican sweep, the GOP registration advantage was 5.5 percentage points. By 2020, the year Biden took Arizona’s Electoral College votes, the advantage was down to 3 percentage points. That crept up to 4 percentage points in 2022, the year Democrats swept the major state offices.

For the 2024 election cycle, the GOP registration advantage had swollen to 6.8 percentage points Today, it is an astonishing 7.3 percentage points.

Now that’s not a death knell for Democratic prospects. There are hundreds of thousands of swing-voting independents and disaffected Republicans that Democrats have a chance of persuading, particularly against a MAGA candidate. Ruben Gallego was able to overcome the swollen registration disadvantage in 2024, keeping the U.S. Senate seat in Democratic hands.

Still, it’s a steep uphill climb, politically. The registration disadvantage will be a key number to watch heading into 2026. My guess is, if a tightening occurs, it will come as much from a reduction in the GOP percentage as an increase in the Democratic one. In other words, from general political trends rather than organizational prowess.

Editor's note: Retired Arizona journalist Robert Robb opines about politics and public policy on Substack. Reach him at robtrobb@gmail.com. Please send your comments to AzOpinions@iniusa.org. We are committed to publishing a wide variety of reader opinions, as long as they meet our Civility Guidelines.