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Carlson: The U.S. election — vastly different outcomes for the real estate industry, depending on who wins the White House

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The countdown to the 2024 U.S. election has begun, and exercising your right to vote is both a privilege and responsibility. What matters most is understanding who and what you are voting for — and the impact the new president will have on the country’s future, its economic strength and sustainability. 

The Harris/Walz and Trump/Vance campaigns offer contrasting solutions to the housing crisis and the broader economic landscape — issues that touch all Americans. While one focuses on tax cuts and deregulation to boost growth, the other emphasizes increased taxation and regulation to address systemic issues.

Taxation

Trump and Harris come from two completely different approaches when it comes to taxation. The Trump ticket emphasizes tax cuts as a means to stimulate economic growth and investment. Building on the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which reduced corporate taxes during his administration, the proposal seeks to lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% and permanently extend capital expenditure depreciation rules.

On the other hand, the Harris ticket supports increased taxation, including a tax on unrealized gains, which some argue could negatively impact housing investments and homeownership. Their plan to address the housing crisis includes building three million new housing units, offering tax incentives and down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers, as well as establishing a $40 billion fund to promote affordable housing.

Although this plan seems idealistic, achieving these goals would require increased taxation. The Harris/Walz administration would implement taxing unrealized gains which is not only going to hurt homebuyers and owners but would also destroy housing investments.

Regulation

The Harris regulatory agenda includes the Stop Predatory Investing Act to limit large-scale property acquisitions by institutional investors.

While Trump’s regulatory agenda is less detailed, his stance on deregulation is clear, especially in the housing sector. He advocates for reducing regulations for homebuilders and generally supports allowing the private sector to operate with minimal government oversight. His broader philosophy leans towards deregulation in various sectors, including energy and housing, favoring private-sector control.

As a point of comparison, under today’s Biden-Harris administration, there has been an increase in housing regulations. A notable example is the $1.7 trillion in new federal regulatory costs incurred over the past three years, which has contributed to challenging marketplace dynamics.

The current state of the market puts added emphasis on the need to alleviate industry pressures in order to better serve future residents through policy reform and construction. This would provide those in search of a home with the opportunity to secure their ideal lifestyle on their terms.

Regardless of how you label your political affiliation, the next leader of our nation must prioritize growth within the housing and real estate markets. As the country grapples with $35 trillion in debt, there needs to be a balance between fiscal responsibility and support for homeowners, renters and property operators.

Given the stakes of this election, voters should thoroughly evaluate each candidate's policies, setting aside biases to focus on the issues that will shape our country's future. Ultimately, the best choice for you will reflect your priorities for both your community and our nation.

Editor’s note: John Carlson president of Mark-Taylor Companies. The capital gains tax he refers to will only impact those with a net worth of $100 million or more. Reader reactions, pro or con, are welcomed at AzOpinions@iniusa.org.

2024 election, Harris/Walz, Trump/Vance, housing crisis, real estate, tax cuts, Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, debt, capital gains