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COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Goodyear case fluctuations attributed to address updates

Posted 9/18/20

The Arizona Department of Health Services reported the number of COVID-19 cases in Goodyear’s 85338 and 85395 ZIP codes was 2,739 as of Friday, Sept. 18, a one-case decrease over last Friday and a 10-case increase over Thursday.

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COVID-19 PANDEMIC

Goodyear case fluctuations attributed to address updates

Posted

The Arizona Department of Health Services reported the number of COVID-19 cases in Goodyear’s 85338 and 85395 ZIP codes was 2,739 as of Friday, Sept. 18, a one-case decrease over last Friday and a 10-case increase over Thursday.

“Cases are assigned based on the primary residence address for an individual patient,” ADHS Public Information Officer Holly Poynter said via email Friday in response to an Independent Newsmedia query about fluctuating daily numbers, especially in the 85338 ZIP code. “Address information can be updated throughout a case investigation. Sometimes this won't be identified until later in an investigation because the ‘home address’ is often used on things like insurance, which may filter down to the lab report.”   

More than 90% of cases reported on the ZIP code dashboard were mapped to the address of the patient’s residence:

Goodyear total

Cases as of Sept. 11: 2,738
Cases as of Sept. 12: 2,737
Cases as of Sept. 13: 2,738
Cases as of Sept. 14: 2,738
Cases as of Sept. 15: 2,741
Cases as of Sept. 16: 2,740
Cases as of Sept. 17: 2,729
Cases as of Sept. 18: 2,739

85338 ZIP code

Cases as of Sept. 11: 1,780
Cases as of Sept. 12: 1,779
Cases as of Sept. 13: 1,777
Cases as of Sept. 14: 1,776
Cases as of Sept. 15: 1,778
Cases as of Sept. 16: 1,776
Cases as of Sept. 17: 1,766
Cases as of Sept. 18: 1,770

85395 ZIP code

Cases as of Sept. 11: 958
Cases as of Sept. 12: 958
Cases as of Sept. 13: 961
Cases as of Sept. 14: 962
Cases as of Sept. 15:  963
Cases as of Sept. 16: 964
Cases as of Sept. 17: 963
Cases as of Sept. 18: 969

To see full numbers across the state, click here.

Maricopa County benchmarks data

ADHS tracks the level of community transmission of COVID-19 as part of its three benchmarks for business and school reopenings, updating its benchmarks data dashboard on Thursdays.

The benchmarks — number of cases per 100,000 people, percent positivity of tests and percentage of people hospitalized with COVID-like illnesses — are divided into three categories: substantial, moderate and minimal.

Substantial transmission: more than 100 cases per 100,000 people, 10% or higher test positivity and more than 10% hospitalizations.
Moderate transmission: 10 to 100 cases per 100,000 people, 5% to 10% test positivity and 5% to 10% hospitalizations.
Minimal transmission: Fewer than 10 cases per 100,000 people, less than 5% test positivity and fewer than 5% hospitalizations.

Figures are about 12 days old to allow for lags in reporting, ADHS states on the website. All three benchmarks must be met for 14 days to move from a higher transmission phase to a lower one.

This week’s community transmission: Moderate

As of Thursday, Sept. 17, the dashboard categorized Maricopa County’s community transmission as moderate, based on data collected Aug. 23 and 30:

Cases per 100,000 people: 43 Aug. 30 / 52 Aug. 23
Test positivity: 4.0% Aug. 30 / 5.1% Aug. 23
COVID-like hospitalizations: 2.0% Aug. 30 / 2.6% Aug. 23

To view the benchmarks dashboard, click here.

Different businesses have different benchmarks for reopening, as do schools.

Benchmarks for businesses

Per ADHS, if community transmission is substantial, bars and nightclubs, gyms and fitness centers, water parks and tube operators must remain closed.

If transmission is moderate, bars and nightclubs providing dine-in services, movie theaters, water parks and tube operators can operate at 50% capacity. Gyms and fitness centers can operate at 25% capacity. Bars and nightclubs that do not serve food cannot reopen.

If transmission is minimal, all bars and nightclubs, movie theaters, water parks, tube operators, gyms and fitness centers can operate at 50% capacity if the percent positivity is below 3%.

Benchmarks for schools

There are two main components for reopening Arizona schools for in-person instruction: quality of the school’s mitigation plan, or how it will minimize the spread of COVID-19; and the degree of community transmission outlined above.

AZDHS recommended that county-specific public health benchmarks fall within the moderate or minimal spread category in all three benchmarks

for two weeks to provide hybrid learning (some students in physical buildings and some students distance learning), specifically:

• A two-week decline in the number of cases or two weeks with new case rates below 100 per 100,000 threshold
• Two weeks with less than 7% test positivity
• Two weeks with less than 10% COVID-like illness hospitalizations

Maricopa County overview

As of Sept. 18, the state reported the following in Maricopa County:

Countywide cases: 139,245 (136,887 last Friday); 194 new from the previous day (316 new last Friday)
Rate of cases per 100,000 people: 3,188.0 (3,134.0 last Friday)
Deaths: 3,245 (3,140 last Friday); 35 new since the previous day (seven new last Friday)
Fatality rate per 100,000 people: 74.29 (71.89 last Friday)
Number of tests conducted: 1,007,640 (950,170 last Friday); 4,522 new from the previous day (4,408 new last Friday)
Test positivity: 11.8% (12.3% last Friday)

To view the data dashboard and statewide information on cases by age, ethnicity and gender; hospital and ventilator usage and availability, and hospital-specific COVID-19 metrics, click here.

Kelly O’Sullivan can be reached at kosullivan@newszap.com or 760-963-1697.